Stat Science: 2012 Finger Lakes 355K
 
Photo by Wesley Daniel / TheRacingExperts.Com
Aric Almirola can still mathematically make the Chase this season without using a wildcard spot.


By Peter Carcia
TheRacingExperts.Com Reporter
8/11/2012
theracingexperts@aol.com


Disclaimer: All opinions are solely those of the writer.

Well, it's certainly unusual for the race at the Glen to have the length amount in the title, but nevertheless, here we are with five races to go in the regular season at the second and final road course of the year! So here's the lowdown on the Sprint Cup Series points.


So as always we have our two MAGIC NUMBERS!!! This is the amount of leeway each driver has to determine whether they statistically have a chance to stay in the race for the Chase. The larger number is the one which account for all of the drivers and points available each race (48), and the lower one, the one we use for the odds, is the number where we theoretically omit the start and park drivers, which typically we see about nine so that the leway per race is 39. So this week's magic numbers are...



240 & 195

Basically this means that in order for a person to still be in contention for the top ten in points, they need to be less than 195 points behind tenth place driver Clint Bowyer, who has 679 points. So anybody with less than 484 points, they are out. So it is official that we are down to 22 drivers left in the race, and 20 drivers in for next week at least as well. For two drivers, however, the hunt for the Championship might end here. Aric Almirola currently has 498 points, where idealy one would want to have about 527 points. So Almirola needs to make up at least 29 points, or finish better than 15th, to ensure his safety. Also in the bubble is Juan Pablo Montoya, but he is in the single digits behind the cutoff, so as long as EGR has good engines, he should be good this week.


Next week, we'll show you the wild card situation and with 165 points of leeway next week, time will be running out for drivers falling behind.