Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr., a sleeper pick for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Chase?
HARRISBURG, N.C. — As much as the season-ending stats don’t look good for Ricky Stenhouse Jr.’s NASCAR Cup Series Chase hopes in 2026, there is a glimmer of a reason to believe he may be flying under the radar this season.
Stenhouse is entering his 14th season in the NASCAR Cup Series and seventh with his current team. Formerly fielded by JTG-Daugherty Racing, his No. 47 team has provided some surprises from time to time in the series.
2022 saw a four-race stretch where Stenhouse finished second at Dover and then no worse than eighth at Darlington, Kansas and Charlotte in the Coca-Cola 600 each.
A year later, they used the momentum from winning the Daytona 500 to be one of the top 16 teams all season – also scoring a playoff appearance, two top-five finishes, nine top-10 finishes and an average finish of 17.8 to show for their best season together yet.
While 2024 saw him miss the Chase, he won at Talladega in the Chase – giving him back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in his career.
In 2025, Stenhouse sat 13th in points after an 11th-place finish in the Coca-Cola 600 – until a rivalry with Carson Hocevar derailed his season. Hocevar bumped Stenhouse into the outside wall at Nashville and escaped a whooping two weeks later in Mexico City where he slid out of control and into Stenhouse.
Stenhouse fell to 21st in points and never whiffed the top-16 again. Although he’d finish sixth a couple of weeks later at Atlanta, it was in the midst of seven finishes of 30th or worse in 11 races that dropped him to 29th in points.
Ultimately, Stenhouse finished the regular season 107 points behind 16th-place. At least 64 points went away with eight finishes worse than his season-long average finish of 22.9 – Nashville, Mexico City, Pocono (30th), Chicago (31st), Sonoma (33rd), Indianapolis (35th), Iowa (33rd) and summer Daytona (35th).
A highlight of the season was Atlanta. Stenhouse finished fifth in the spring and sixth in the summer, boosting his average finish in the last five Atlanta races to 8.2.
Using the same “average” math, Stenhouse could’ve clawed back another 14 points if his finishes of 18th at Daytona and 12th at Talladega would’ve turned into finishes of eighth or better.
Not to mention, a win at a superspeedway would be worth another 20 points each now this season.
The odds aren’t in Stenhouse’s favor to make the Chase but that hasn’t mattered before with this team. If they can open the season strong and keep up enough momentum in the summer, there is a chance they could be a part of the 16-man Chase in the fall.
The first challenge for the team is the new Chevrolet body. The team largely stands on its own and will likely have more limited notes and data points than many other Chevrolet teams. Luckily, Stenhouse got a taste of the new 750 horsepower package during a test at North Wilkesboro Speedway.
Altogether, the 750 HP ovals and superspeedways make up 14 of the 26 regular season races. With Stenhouse’s skill and data points that are gathered and evolving, maybe the No. 47 team could find themselves sneaking into the Chase in 2026?
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Jonathan Fjeld View All
Jonathan Fjeld is the co-owner of the The Racing Experts, LLC. He has been with TRE since 2010.
A Twin Valley, MN, native, Fjeld became a motorsports fan at just three years old (first race was the 2002 Pennsylvania 500). He worked as a contributor and writer for TRE from 2010-18. Since then, he has stepped up and covered 24 NASCAR race weekends and taken on a larger role with TRE. He became the co-owner and managing editor in 2023 and has guided the site to massive growth in that time.
Fjeld has covered a wide array of stories and moments over the years, including Kevin Harvick's final Cup Series season, the first NASCAR national series disqualification in over 50 years, Shane van Gisbergen's stunning win in Chicago and the first Cup Series race at Road America in 66 years – as well as up-and-coming drivers' stories and stories from inside the sport, like the tech it takes for Hendrick Motorsports to remain a top-tier team.
Currently, he resides in Albuquerque, N.M., where he works for KOB 4, an NBC station. He works as a digital producer and does on-air reports. He loves spending time with friends and family, playing and listening to music, exploring new places, being outdoors, reading books and writing among other activities. You can email him at fjeldjonathan@gmail.com