NASCAR Cup playoff drivers see simple path to Championship 4 at Martinsville

MARTINSVILLE, Va. — The drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs each have a simple path to the Championship 4 at Martinsville Speedway.

Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe have to log any number of the 500 laps in any way they see fit to keep up the momentum. Then, it’s time to race for a championship at Phoenix Raceway.

Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Christopher Bell is in a different situation that’s very similar to Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson.

If Bell wants to make the Championship 4, he has to stay ahead of Larson and earn more points than him throughout the race at Martinsville. If Larson wants to make the Championship 4, the task against Bell is the same.

Larson has the advantage. Although Bell has outscored Larson in more NextGen races than not (four vs. three), Larson has a greater propensity to run up front at Martinsville. He has finished second, first, sixth, second, third and fifth in the last six races, while Bell has finished first, 16th, seventh, 35th, 22nd and second.

The last result — in the spring race earlier this year — is critical. That is the last data point for this track and the right-side tire compound from that race will be back this weekend at Martinsville.

The left-side tire compound was run at New Hampshire, where 14 stage points allowed Larson to outpoint Bell despite finishing behind him in seventh.

So, all of these numbers and talk about Bell and Larson — but why is that when they are 37 and 36 points above the cutline? It’s because of these four drivers who have a very high chance of winning and moving the cutline up:

Chase Elliott (-62 points to the cutline)

Elliott is the furthest from the cutline and can’t point his way into the Championship 4 after a crash at Talladega. He will need to win at Martinsville to get in.

Luckily for Elliott, he has been one of the best drivers at Martinsville in the NextGen era. Here is how his stats stack up:

• Wins: 0
• Top-Five finishes: 3 (4th)
• Top-10 finishes: 6 (2nd)
• Average finish: 8.0 (4th)
• Average of 39.9 points per race (3rd)
• 557 laps led (2nd)
• Average start: 6.9 (2nd)

Elliott has only been getting better at Martinsville.

After three 10th-place finishes in a row and then a 17th-place finish in fall of 2023, Elliott hasn’t qualified worse than third, hasn’t finished worse than fourth and has earned at least 45 points and led at least 42 laps in each race since.

Still, winning is the only thing that will matter in his position. The spring Martinsville race saw Elliott be second-best to Denny Hamlin. That is a good for Elliott, who will bring his A-game to Martinsville to lock in while Hamlin is already in.

Elliott will be a contender to win – but one guy will be there to challenge him.

Ryan Blaney (-47)

Ryan Blaney leads in four of the important categories to look at ahead of this weekend’s race at Martinsville:

• Wins: 2 (1st)
• Top-Five finishes: 5 (1st)
• Top-10 finishes: 6 (2nd)
• Average finish: 4.6 (1st)
• Average of 42 points per race (1st)
• 182 laps led (5th)
• Average start: 16.1 (17th)

Blaney’s two wins came in the last two fall Martinsville races. That is key. He is clutch in these scenarios.

On top of it, Blaney was lights-out fast at New Hampshire with the tire compound Goodyear brought to that race and will bring to Martinsville.

Although Blaney has a poor qualifying record at Martinsville, he knows how to work his way through the field. He earned finishes of seventh and 11th after starting 31st and 32nd before at Martinsville. When he won in 2023 and 2024, he started 11th and 14th, respectively.

The key will be to look at Blaney’s practice speed. If the speed is there, Blaney will be in contention to win – and so may his much revered – and feared – teammate:

Joey Logano (-38)

Although you may want to, you can’t count Joey Logano out. His stats may not be the best at Martinsville but they’re good enough to where he could show out:

• Wins: 0
• Top-Five finishes: 3 (4th)
• Top-10 finishes: 7 (1st)
• Average finish: 5.6 (2nd)
• Average of 38.1 points per race (5th)
• 122 laps led (10th)
• Average start: 11.6 (7th)

The only thing that may hold Logano back is he is typically stronger in the spring than he is in the fall. He has finished second, second, sixth and eighth in the spring, compared to sixth, fifth and 10th in the fall.

However, Logano has never come into a fall Martinsville race in the NextGen era with a dire need to win to get into the Championship 4. He was locked in already in 2022 and 2024 and wasn’t in contention in 2023.

Logano also has recent history on his side. With the Martinsville left-side tire compound at New Hampshire, he led the most laps and had the best track position all day before fading on the long run and late in the race to fourth. You can only imagine crew chief Paul Wolfe has brushed up on the flaws in the setup and is ready to deploy any strategy he can to get the No. 22 team one step closer to title No. 4.

It’s unclear how exactly Martinsville may unfold but track position will be key, as is the case at any track. Logano’s pit crew is also consistent and their driver is one of the best defenders. If he gets the lead, he is going to be hard to beat – but one Hendrick Motorsports driver could find it a little easier.

William Byron (-36)

William Byron was one of the first drivers to quickly pick up NextGen racing at Martinsville. His stats reflect that too.

• Wins: 2 (1st)
• Top-Five finishes: 2 (6th)
• Top-10 finishes: 4 (7th)
• Average finish: 10.4 (9th)
• Average of 33.4 points per race (7th)
• 351 laps led (3rd)
• Average start: 12.1 (8th)

The other stats indicate Byron is hit or miss at Martinsville, however. He finished 22nd in this year’s spring race — a similar result as 2023 when he finished 13th in the fall to follow it up.

Finishing outside of the top-10 is a no-go for Byron. Luckily, he was well inside the top-10 and in the mix for a win at New Hampshire with the Martinsville left-side tire — finishing fourth after getting third in each stage.

Hendrick Motorsports has also been strong at Martinsville, winning three of the seven NextGen races there. A good history means good notes, which they can apply to their New Hampshire notes to run well when it matters most.

Who gets in?

The law of averages has to catch up to a driver at some point but that can wait another year on Ryan Blaney.

Based on the New Hampshire performance and his history at Martinsville, he is primed to win and join Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe in the Championship 4.

While Chase Elliott is a strong pick, he hasn’t shown the extra speed needed to break through and win in key races like Blaney has.

Still, as we learned at Kansas Speedway, don’t count out Elliott.

No matter if it’s Blaney or Elliott, you can bet on Kyle Larson.

Larson is primed to outpoint Christopher Bell at Martinsville by a razor-thin margin that will come down to the final laps of the race.

The spoiler in all of this, of course, is Denny Hamlin.

Hamlin won in the spring and has been strong at Martinsville. He has led the most laps of any driver in the NextGen era (735) and is tied with Blaney and Larson for the most top-five finishes in the era (5).

While a win would be moot for Hamlin, it would likely lock Christopher Bell into the Championship 4 and ensure Joe Gibbs Racing has a 3-in-4 chance of winning the championship at Phoenix Raceway.

No matter who wins Sunday at Martinsville and gets into the Championship 4, it’s shaping up to be one of the most competitive fights for the win the half-mile paperclip has seen — a clear reflection of the competitive championship fight this season is shaping up to be.

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