NASCAR in-season tournament: Second round matchups for Chicago

CHICAGO — With every bracket busted before the second round of the NASCAR in-season tournament, all that’s left is to see which team will win $1 million.

Here are the matchups for the second round of the NASCAR in-season tournament – set to take place in Chicago.

Here is a look at the second round matchups in the NASCAR in-season tournament in Chicago:

Brad Keselowski (No. 17) vs. Ty Dillon (No. 32)

The champion moniker may be a little deceiving for those favoring Brad Keselowski. The 2012 champion has struggled on road/street courses – but not nearly as badly as Ty Dillon. Here is their numbers in comparison.

• Brad Keselowski
  • 20.5 average finish in 19 NextGen road/street course starts
    • One Top-10 finish: 10th at Sonoma in 2022
    • Chicago: 24th in 2023, 18th in 2024
• Ty Dillon
  • 27.8 average finish in 14 NextGen road/street course starts
    • No Top-10 finishes
    • Chicago: 35th in 2023

Dillon has the benefit of A.J. Allmendinger being his teammate but Keselowski has momentum from some strong runs lately. Keselowski ran well at Atlanta and Pocono, in particular, and could’ve won either race if not for a couple of things going sideways. Momentum is everything in NASCAR – and Keselowski has it.

Road course matchups this year:

• COTA
  • Keselowski: 15th
  • Dillon: 28th
• Mexico City
  • Keselowski: 25th
  • Dillon: 33rd

Alex Bowman (No. 8) vs. Bubba Wallace (No. 9)

As it stands, Alex Bowman is one of the best road/street course racers in the field and is coming off of a big stretch of races lately.

After tweaking his back in a hard, head-on crash at Michigan, Bowman kept Anthony Alfredo stay on the sidelines while he earned a fourth-place finish with eight stage points.

Bowman has six Top-5 finishes, eight Top-10s and an average finish of 14.2 in 18 NextGen road/street course races. He also is the defending winner in Chicago. Coincidentally, Wallace door-slammed Bowman after he won to pay him back for contact they made earlier in the race.

Despite being close enough to Bowman to flare tempers in last year’s Chicago race and certainly getting better on road/street courses, Wallace only has a Top-5, three Top-10s and an average finish of 20.6 on these tracks in the NextGen era.

Both drivers are looking for big results in Chicago, sitting on the cutline of the playoffs, but Bowman is primed to do much bigger things than Wallace.

Road course matchups this year:

• COTA
  • Bowman: Ninth
  • Wallace: 20th (started second and led four laps)
• Mexico City
  • Bowman: Fourth
  • Wallace: 12th

Chase Elliott (No. 5) vs. John Hunter Nemechek (No. 12)

While John Hunter Nemechek has seen the momentum shift in his favor lately, there really is no beating Chase Elliott on road courses – especially now.

Elliott drove with all of his heart to score his first win of the 2025 season at EchoPark Speedway Atlanta. It accentuated the stellar season he has had with a career-best 10.3 average to-date this season.

In 18 NextGen road/street course races, Elliott has a win, 10 Top-5 finishes and 12 Top-10s with 147 laps led and a second-best average finish of 9.8. He’s the only driver with double-digit Top-5s in the era – among them a fourth-place finish at Circuit of the Americas in March, a third-place finish in Mexico City in June and another third-place finish in Chicago in 2023.

Nemechek is coming off of two sixth-place finishes at Pocono and Mexico City and is on a great stretch. However, up against someone like Elliott, his run in the in-season tournament likely will come to an end in Chicago.

Road course matchups this year:

• COTA
  • Elliott: Fourth
  • Nemechek: 22nd
• Mexico City
  • Elliott: Third
  • Nemechek: Sixth

Erik Jones (No. 20) vs. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (No. 29)

Here is a matchup that may not be up front but will certainly be one to watch for how close it is. In 19 NextGen road/street course races, this is how Jones and Stenhouse compare:

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
  • 21.5 average finish, two Top-10 finishes
    • Sixth in Chicago in 2024
    • Seventh at COTA in 2023
• Erik Jones
  • 23.9 average finish, two Top-10s
    • Ninth at COTA in 2022
    • 10th at Watkins Glen in 2022

Jones finished 16th in the inaugural Chicago Street Course race despite having to come back from an early incident with the turn six wall and dealing with a Legacy Motor Club team on a downturn. Now in a season where his team is stepping up their performance, Jones is rolling and looks to be the favorite here.

Road course matchups this year:

• COTA
  • Stenhouse: 18th
  • Jones: 27th
• Mexico City
  • Jones: 17th
  • Stenhouse: 27th

Ryan Preece (No. 15) vs. Noah Gragson (No. 31)

Neither Ryan Preece nor Noah Gragson is really looking forward to Chicago, if history is any indication. In fact, their Chicago stats practically mirror each other:

• Noah Gragson
  • 14th after starting 28th in 2024
  • 25th after starting 23rd in 2023
• Ryan Preece
  • 34th after starting 29th in 2024
  • 15th after starting 28th in 2023

Gragson and Preece each have one Top-10 finish in the NextGen era. Gragson has the edge with a NextGen-best eighth-place finish at Circuit of the Americas earlier this year and a 22.3 average finish – to Preece’s NextGen-best ninth at Watkins Glen last year and a 24.1 average finish.

Preece, however, has shown improvement. He started second in Mexico City and led four laps as he stayed out to win the first stage. The No. 60 team also nearly pulled off a win in Chicago in 2024.

This battle will be unpredictable. It may not be for the win but it will be one to watch.

Road course matchups this year:

• COTA
  • Gragson: Eighth
  • Preece: 33rd
• Mexico City
  • Preece: 15th
  • Gragson: 30th

Tyler Reddick (No. 23) vs. Carson Hocevar (No. 26)

Referred to as “Road Course Jesus” by 23XI Racing teammate Bubba Wallace, Tyler Reddick comes into this matchup as the favorite.

In 19 NextGen races on road/street courses, Reddick has the fourth-best average finish – 11.2 – plus four wins, eight Top-5 finishes and 13 Top-10s. He has also led 12% of the laps he’s completed in the era – 208 of 1,691 – and has been the favorite in Chicago the last two years.

In 2024, Reddick had the speed to to pass Alex Bowman on the final lap – until he hit the wall and settled for second. In 2023, he led the first eight laps and earned 17 stage points after starting second – but finished 28th after a late wreck.

With the unpredictability of road/street course races, Reddick will need to be perfect and have perfect luck – especially with Carson Hocevar as a challenger.

Last year in Chicago, Hocevar benefitted from the rain-shuffled running order to contend for a top-10 finish. Unfortunately, contact with Christopher Bell in the wet-to-dry conditions relegated him to 24th.

Crew chief Luke Lambert knows how to put Hocevar in a great position. Although Reddick is a clear favorite in this matchup, Lambert could cook something up to pull off another upset in an upset-laden tournament.

Road course matchups this year:

• COTA
  • Reddick: Second
  • Hocevar: 13th
• Mexico City
  • Reddick: 20th
  • Hocevar: 34th

Ty Gibbs (No. 6) vs. AJ Allmendinger (No. 22)

As far as the second round NASCAR in-season tournament matchups go at Chicago, this is likely the most competitive.

Gibbs is coming off of a few strong runs, even if the finishes don’t exactly show for it. At Atlanta and in Mexico City, he ran up front and led at least 27 laps in each race before finishing 14th and 11th respectively. Atlanta saw him get damage while Mexico City saw strategies shuffle him back.

Like Gibbs, Allmendinger is desperate to get a win with the cutline getting further and further away. Allmendinger has extra motivation too – to prove himself.

Allmendinger has a win, four Top-5 finishes and 10 Top-10s in 17 NextGen road course starts.

At Chicago, Allmendinger has only mustered a 17th-place finish at best – in 2023 after starting 10th and getting five stage points.

Gibbs had a similar run in 2023, finishing ninth after starting 12th and getting seven stage points. Gibbs ran better in 2024, starting third after leading a race-high 17 of 58 laps and getting eight stage points. However, a slide in performance this year makes him more unpredictable in Chicago.

Expect Allmendinger and Gibbs to be close – if not nose-to-tail – when it comes down to the checkered flag.

Road course matchups this year:

• COTA (both drivers had issues late)
  • Allmendinger: 30th
  • Gibbs: 34th
• Mexico City
  • Gibbs: 11th
  • Allmendinger: 13th

Chris Buescher (No. 3) vs. Zane Smith (No. 14)

Buescher has the best average finish on road and street courses in the NextGen era. He has an average finish of 8.8, a win at Watkins Glen in 2024, four Top-5 finishes and 15 Top-10s in 19 road and street course races since 2022.

That makes Zane Smith the underdog in this matchup.

Smith has one Top-5 in nine NextGen starts on road and street courses – to Buescher at Watkins Glen no less. Strategies shuffling a race like this appear to be his one chance.

Road course matchups this year:

• COTA
  • Buescher: Seventh
  • Smith: 29th
• Mexico City
  • Buescher: 10th
  • Smith: 35th (drivetrain issue after 76 of 100 laps)

Our picks for second round of NASCAR in-season tournament

Here are our picks for the second round matchups in the NASCAR in-season tournament at Chicago:

• Ty Dillon
• Alex Bowman
• Chase Elliott
• Erik Jones
• Ryan Preece
• Tyler Reddick
• Ty Gibbs
• Chris Buescher

MORE: Every NASCAR in-season tournament bracket is busted after first round