Ross Chastain: NASCAR Cup playoffs 2025 preview

Ross Chastain and Trackhouse Racing’s regular season has been a rollercoaster in the truest sense of the word.

They opened the season with the same aggression and energy that made him the driver we all know but consistency has once again proven elusive.

Ross Chastain has battled through up and downs, piecing together a mix of strong runs with frustrating setbacks. After his exclusion from last year’s playoffs, his lone victory of 2025 at Charlotte secured the Florida driver win and a chance to fight for the Bill France Cup again.

Even with all the inconsistency on Saturday’s throughout the regular season, this reminded the garage of his capability to capitalize when the moment is right.

Bumps, Breakthroughs and A Playoff Ticket

Qualifying speed has been weak for Ross Chastain this season. Outside of road courses, he only started inside the top 10 twice in the regular season — Ninth in the Daytona 500 and fifth at Nashville. Early in the year, frustration boiled over as Chastain went nine straight qualifying sessions with a best of just 17th at Martinsville, far from ideal for a playoff-caliber team.

Still, raceday speed has been his saving grace. In his lone win, Chastain charged from last to first to capture the Coca-Cola 600 —becoming the first driver to ever pull off that feat.

Still, his 22nd-place average start — compared to a 16.2 average finish — raises concern. To make a deep playoff run, Trackhouse knows they’ll need to give him cars capable of starting closer to the front.

Ross Chastain NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Outlook

Though their team has had bumps on Saturday, Chastain has had breakthroughs with his wins and 10 Top-10 finishes to keep himself in the conversation. The 2022 Championship 4 finalist is familiar with what it takes to get there.

Even if he can’t Hail Melon his way to the finale, here is how he could possibly get there:

• Round of 16: Darlington, Gateway, Bristol

The Round of 16 plays to Chastain and Trackhouse’s strengths on intermediates and with aggression. He’ll chase a third straight top-five finish at Darlington, build on solid runs at Gateway and Bristol and lean on consistent Top-15 finishes to advance.

• Round of 12: New Hampshire, Kansas, Charlotte Roval

If Chastain reaches the Round of 12, he’ll face a favorable stretch —returning to New Hampshire after last year’s top-10 and defending his Kansas win. He will lean on Trackhouse’s strong road course program at the Charlotte Roval for more signature moments.

• Round of 8: Las Vegas, Talladega, Martinsville
• Championship 4: Phoenix

How Ross arrives this far down the line depends on how well they adapt to themselves.

Trackhouse Racing continues to establish itself as a legitimate contender. Chastain can play the role of a fearless spark plug who can overperform under pressure.

If they can fix their regular season mistakes, they could be dangerous in the postseason because of his ability to maximize opportunities and stir things up in elimination rounds. Combined with his aggressive reputation, competitors know he won’t back down when it matters.

Ross Chastain Overview

2025 Stats:

• 1 win
  • Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte
• 3 Top-five finishes, 10 Top-10 finishes
• 69 laps led out 6,011 run
• 21.9 avg start
• 16.2 avg finish
• 4 DNF’s
  • Daytona 500 (accident), Echo Park Speedway (accident), Dover (accident), and Indianapolis (accident)

Strengths:

• Solid race pace on Intermediates and Road Courses
• Ability to seize the moment
• Willingness to make bold moves

Weaknesses:

• Qualifying speed
• Amount of points heading into the playoffs
• Down year for him and Trackhouse thus far