Who to watch as the 2026 NASCAR Cup season truly begins
AVONDALE, Ariz. — After opening the season with three abnormal tracks, the NASCAR Cup Series will now face six tracks that will give an idea of who could possibly vie for the Bill France Cup in November.
The next six weeks will take the NASCAR Cup Series to six different tracks they will see again in the Chase. They encompass two 1.5-mile intermediate ovals, three shorter tracks and a gritty, old-school oval that will separate the pretenders from the contenders.
Curr
It would be a shock if more than one of the next few drivers did not win over the next six races.
Ryan Blaney (Fourth, -86 points)
Blaney leads all drivers at Phoenix Raceway with an average of 43.25 points per race. He is also the most recent winner at the 1-mile track, nipping Brad Keselowski in November.
While Las Vegas could be a treacherous track for the Team Penske driver, who hasn’t finished in the top-30 there since spring of 2024, he nearly won at Darlington last spring and is among the top-five points earners in recent races at Bristol and Kansas, as well as Martinsville where he leads all drivers with an average of 45.375 points per race and has two wins.
If anyone is going to challenge Reddick for the points lead, it’s going to be Blaney. His speed has been strong to start the season and fares well for the momentum he’ll carry into tracks where he is extra confident.
William Byron (13th, -110)
William Byron leads all drivers at Darlington in terms of average points earned per NextGen race. He also ranks top-10 at every other track, including Phoenix and Las Vegas where he ranks second at each.
Martinsville is another strength for Byron, who has three NextGen wins at the paperclip.
Kyle Larson (15th, -113)
Larson leads all drivers in terms of average points per race at three of the six upcoming tracks — Las Vegas (47.75 points per race), Kansas (43.125) and Bristol (47.5) — and is top-five in the statline at every other track except Darlington.
This is usually the time of year where Larson gets hot. If he doesn’t win one of the next six races, it will be a shock and make a point of where his team is.
Christopher Bell (24th, -127)
While 2026 hasn’t started that well for Joe Gibbs Racing, who sees its drivers in 17th, 23rd, 24th and 27th in points after three races, a strong stretch is coming up — starting with Phoenix.
Christopher Bell has won the last two spring races and has been one of the strongest drivers there in recent years. He ranks second for average points earned per race in the NextGen era (38.125, weighted) and leads all drivers since 2024 with an average of 54 points earned per race.
Three-peats are all the rage this year so surely that could extend to Bell.
Phoenix isn’t even the best part of this stretch for Bell, who leads the field at Bristol with an average of 47.5 points per race and a win in the fall. He also ranks in the top-five of points earned per NextGen race on average at every track in the upcoming stretch except for Martinsville (where he ranks eighth).
As this stretch weeds out the contenders for the pretenders, Bell is sure to rise well into Chase contention and compete with Tyler Reddick.
Who stands out? Who may move up the standings? Which drivers may struggle?
William Byron has averaged 39.75 points per race, best of the field.
How about points leader Tyler Reddick?
The stretch appears to start well – with Reddick ranking among the top 10 over the next three tracks:
- Phoenix: 30 points per race (eighth, weighted)
- Las Vegas: 31.25 (seventh)
- Darlington: 38.25 (third)
As the stretch goes along, however, so does Reddick’s average points total:
- Martinsville: 21.25 (14th)
- Bristol: 18.25 (20th)
- Kansas: 20.5 (16th)
The strong start to the season for 23XI Racing – compared to their consistent weaknesses last season – suggests Reddick will perform better. That bodes well for Kansas where, despite ranking 16th for points earned on average, Reddick is a hotshoe on the intermediate tracks.
Teammate Bubba Wallace is also no slouch. He nearly won at Kansas last time they visited the track and has been known to pop into the top-10 at Darlington, Martinsville and Bristol before. While he doesn’t have as much of a cushion as Reddick does to hold on to his current points standing of second, -70 to the lead, he’s in great position to make the Chase at 48 points to the good already.
While 23XI Racing has established themselves well this season, there are a few drivers who face a key stretch to show they’re not just pretending.
Shane van Gisbergen (Fifth, +33 to the cutline)
Shane van Gisbergen had a torrid start to the season that has seen him be one of a few drivers to lead a lap in every race.
Surely, a lack of oval experience is set to catch up to him but the upcoming stretch may surprise some people.
While Phoenix won’t be anything special for SVG, one may recall him rim-riding his way to the top-10 at Las Vegas before a late-race crash relegated him to a poor finish, or finishing top-15 at Martinsville, or getting 10th at Kansas — all tracks in this upcoming stretch.
Darlington and Bristol are unlikely to be anything spectacular for SVG, who will likely fall down the standings, but the goal is to stay within striking distance of the Chase for when the road courses come. If he can build on his successes in the fall, he’ll be right there.
Spire Motorsports
All of Spire Motorsports’ drivers — Daniel Suarez, Michael McDowell and Carson Hocevar — are in the top-10 in points — at seventh (+22 points to the cutline), ninth (+18) and 10th (+17) respectively.
Hocevar is a firecracker who is ready to take Spire to a whole other level. Phoenix and Las Vegas have been good for him and could be the perfect place for him to stoke some momentum he’ll need at Darlington and Martinsville before getting to Bristol, where he was one of the best drivers in both races.
Hocevar has the speed but he has also had mechanical woes and mistakes that have gotten in his way. If the No. 77 team can get through the next six races with some solid finishes, free of mechanical woes and mistakes, Hocevar could set himself up for some races where he could possibly win and tee up a Chase berth.
As for his teammates, Suarez and McDowell rank 15th and 16th for points earned in the last four races at Phoenix. Their stats beyond then aren’t the most spectacular, making them vulnerable to drivers who are moving up:
- Ross Chastain: 20th, -4
- Ranks top-10 in average points per NextGen race in every track except Bristol, where he ranks 10th in the statline since 2024
- Denny Hamlin: 23rd, -8
- Ranks top-five in average points per NextGen race in every track except Phoenix, where he ranks third in the statline since 2024
- Chase Briscoe: 27th, -22
- Historically good at Phoenix, most recent winner at Darlington and finished fourth in the most recent races at Las Vegas and Kansas, ninth in the most recent Bristol race.
- Alex Bowman: 36th, -45
Alex Bowman, who currently sits last in points among all full-time drivers, is among the top 10 points earners in the NextGen era at Las Vegas (ninth), Bristol (10th) and Kansas (eighth).
Most recently, Bowman has also been among the top-10 points earners in the last four races at Phoenix (10th), Las Vegas (fifth), Martinsville (10th), Bristol (sixth) and Kansas (sixth) each.
It’s early in the season but Bowman has work to do. If he were to repeat his performance from last season, he would make the Chase as the No. 14 seed but would have a 90-point deficit to the points leader.
Bowman has just 23 points after crashing at Daytona and EchoPark Atlanta and ailing badly enough at Circuit of the Americas to hand the car over to Myatt Snider in the closing laps. That is likely to change very quickly as the next few races hold much better historical stats for him.
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Jonathan Fjeld View All
Jonathan Fjeld is the co-owner of the The Racing Experts, LLC. He has been with TRE since 2010.
A Twin Valley, MN, native, Fjeld became a motorsports fan at just three years old (first race was the 2002 Pennsylvania 500). He worked as a contributor and writer for TRE from 2010-18. Since then, he has stepped up and covered 24 NASCAR race weekends and taken on a larger role with TRE. He became the co-owner and managing editor in 2023 and has guided the site to massive growth in that time.
Fjeld has covered a wide array of stories and moments over the years, including Kevin Harvick's final Cup Series season, the first NASCAR national series disqualification in over 50 years, Shane van Gisbergen's stunning win in Chicago and the first Cup Series race at Road America in 66 years – as well as up-and-coming drivers' stories and stories from inside the sport, like the tech it takes for Hendrick Motorsports to remain a top-tier team.
Currently, he resides in Albuquerque, N.M., where he works for KOB 4, an NBC station. He works as a digital producer and does on-air reports. He loves spending time with friends and family, playing and listening to music, exploring new places, being outdoors, reading books and writing among other activities. You can email him at fjeldjonathan@gmail.com