2024 NASCAR Cup Series playoff preview and predictions

HAMPTON, Ga. — The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are here and it’s shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory.

That’s because of the tracks that lie in the first two rounds and how close many of the drivers are in points.

In the Round of 16, there is the inevitable wild card of Atlanta but also Watkins Glen and Bristol with possible high tire wear. Then, the Round of 12 has Talladega, the Charlotte Roval, and Kansas which produced a barnburner of a race and finish in the spring.

It’s going to be tight through each round as the playoff seeding looks like this:

Here are our predictions for eliminations in the first three rounds, the Championship 4 field and the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.

BACKGROUND

Round of 16

Austin Cindric

You have to be good to be lucky and that’s what happened to Austin Cindric. Cindric ran second to teammate Ryan Blaney during the Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway when it turned out Blaney needed one more lap of fuel to win.

That win put Cindric into victory lane for the first time since the 2022 Daytona 500 and into the playoffs for the first time since that year.

Now that he’s in the playoffs, Atlanta being in the first round is a huge benefit to him. In the spring, he led 32 laps and finished fourth to follow finishes of 12th, 11th and third in Atlanta before. In those four starts, he has averaged 39.5 points.

A 40-point day and his seven playoff points would mean he would have 47 points after Atlanta. That bodes well for making the Round of 12. In the 2020s, it has taken an average of 79 points to make that round so he would need to earn at least 16 points at Watkins Glen and Bristol each to advance.

While Cindric has averaged around 22.5 points in his starts at Watkins Glen, he has averaged around nine points in his starts at Bristol. Altogether, that’s about 32 points.

Cindric’s history and performance doesn’t bode well for him to build upon thin margins. Therefore, we believe Cindric will exit the playoffs after the Round of 16.

(Cindric is the only driver our six-person panel unanimously agreed would be out after Round of 16.)

V

Harrison Burton

Harrison Burton’s playoff berth on a win at Daytona in August will go down as a miraculous, feel-good story that will bode well for Burton and Wood Brothers Racing in many ways, in terms of career and financial stability.

In the last two seasons, they’ve finished 31st and 27th in points, only picking up four Top-10 finishes and consistently having one of the worst average finishes of the entire series.

Being guaranteed a 16th-place finish in points is huge. They could essentially end the season now and see what’s next. But the playoffs present an opportunity for them.

As mentioned, it’s going to take around 79 points to get to the Round of 12. Burton starts with five, meaning he will have to average around 25 points per race. Burton has only earned 25 points or more in just 10 of his 99 NASCAR Cup Series starts – and only five times in the 62 races this season and last.

Three of those times were the last three drafting track races (29 at Atlanta, 32 at Talladega, 40 at Daytona). A 33-point day at Atlanta means he’ll have to average around 20 points per race to advance, unless he gets a win.

One of our panelists believes this could happen. The rest of us believe it will not.

Daniel Suarez

The most recent winner at Atlanta Motor Speedway comes to the playoffs in an interesting spot. Daniel Suarez is the only Trackhouse Racing driver in the playoffs and is riding a wave of three Top-10 finishes in the final five regular-season races.

Atlanta will be a make-or-break race for Suarez. History shows he could make it happen, as he has four Top-10s in five races on the new Atlanta configuration, including the win. He has averaged around 40 points per Atlanta race which, combined with his six playoff points, means he will only need to average around 17 points in the final two races. That could come as Suarez has posted solid, but not great, finishes at Bristol and the road courses that would meet that criteria.

Three of our six panelists believe Suarez will meet that criteria, and advanced him forward to the Round of 12. The other three did not.

We believe Suarez will miss based on how we predicted other drivers you will see beyond this point.

Chase Briscoe

The last driver predicted for elimination in the Round of 16 is also the last driver who earned a spot in the playoffs, getting in on the last night of the regular season in the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.

The three panelists predicting Suarez will advance are the panelists predicting Briscoe won’t advance. The other three predicting Suarez won’t advance are the ones predicting Briscoe will advance.

Briscoe had one of the fastest cars at Atlanta in the spring before a crash took him out. At Bristol, Stewart-Haas Racing was one of the fastest overall teams during an otherwise unpredictable day. Briscoe also has a noted road course record in his NASCAR career.

What could hold Briscoe back is the support they’re getting from Ford. SHR is reportedly getting less and less support from Ford after announcing their closure. A lack of support up against the likes of fully-Ford-backed teams like RFK Racing, Penske Racing and Wood Brothers Racing is going to be a tall task.

But, miracles could happen, especially with the full support of 323 people.

Round of 12

Alex Bowman

Bowman’s breakthrough win finally got the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet back to victory lane for the first time since before a season-ending concussion in 2022 and a season-derailing back injury in 2023. It, for a brief time, silenced doubters calling for his release and showed why he belonged.

Since then, it still hasn’t been easy. After finishing third the week after his win in Chicago, Bowman has finished 31st, 28th, 27th, 16th and 19th, sliding to 13th in points. Bowman has also been quiet compared to his teammates, only leading 14 laps, but his stats aren’t far off of what they’ve done.

Bowman has the same amount of wins as Chase Elliott and has only one less Top-5 finish than Elliott. The driver of the No. 48 car has the same amount of Top-10s as him and just one less Top-10 than Larson and Byron.

There’s strength in the number 48 too, a number known for coming alive in the playoffs and doing so in 2022 with Bowman before his concussion at the start of the Round of 12.

Our panelists are split: Three believe he will face elimination in the Round of 16, two believe he will face elimination in the Round of 12 and one believes he will go all the way to the Round of 8.

You can never count out a Hendrick car – or someone finishing 13th in the regular-season standings, at face value at least. That’s what Ryan Blaney did before winning the championship last year.

Simply put, Alex Bowman is a wild card for this year’s playoffs.

Joey Logano

Joey Logano just hasn’t looked like Joey Logano this season. In fact, he is on track for his worst average finish (18.3) since 2011 (19.1).

The difference is Logano has led 264 laps this season and has shown speed on drafting tracks and short tracks. He won a pole at Sonoma Raceway earlier this season. He also earned a playoff spot with a Nashville win in never-ending overtime.

The problem is, Logano has to avoid incidents and mistakes. Those have plagued him in all of the drafting track races this year. A strong points day at Atlanta and replicating short track success at Bristol will carry him to the Round of 12.

Four panelists believe Logano will make it to the Round of 12. One believes he will make the Round of 8 while the other believes he will get eliminated right away.

Ty Gibbs

The second-year Joe Gibbs Racing phenom starts tied for shotgun on the playoff field. Somehow, he is still winless despite putting up some stellar performances early on in the season.

One of those performances was at Bristol. If not for some of his inexperience showing against decades of experience, he could’ve won earlier this year. He also has a pair of third-place finishes on road courses – in Chicago and at COTA. Atlanta wasn’t a winner but it was consistent.

All of that likely bodes well for him to advance to the Round of 12, at least four of our panelists believe. In the Round of 12, he will need to earn enough points at Talladega. Then, he will need to continue his consistent performance on intermediates and road courses.

Three of those four panelists who put him in the Round of 12 don’t believe he will advance. But, one panelist sees him going all the way to the Championship 4.

If Gibbs can get hot, surely he could do it. Two intermediates present stellar opportunities for the young driver to get it done.

Brad Keselowski

Brad Keselowski stands atop a stacked group of drivers that could shake the playoffs in their favor with even a moment going one way or another.

Keselowski has two bullets that could work out well for him with the first two rounds both having a drafting track and a track of strength for him. Bristol is where he finished third in the spring and Kansas is the site of teammate Chris Buescher’s near-win and Keselowski’s near-win before a late caution.

Four panelists believe he will make it to the Round of 12 while the other two are split, believing he will either make it to the Round of 8 or get eliminated right away.

Round of 8

Martin Truex Jr.

The final full-time season for the 2017 NASCAR Cup Series champion so far hasn’t gone to plan like he would’ve preferred. Martin Truex Jr. skirted into the playoffs by six points after seven finishes of 24th or worse in the final eight regular-season races, dropping him from fourth to 10th in points.

However, as we learned last season, things can change on a dime for him. Just as he had a great regular season last year, he struggled mightily in the playoffs but hung on to finish in the Round of 8 thanks to his abundant playoff point total.

This season, Truex starts last in the playoffs. If Bristol is the way it was in the spring, though, when he finished second with 44 points, that’s step number one to advancing. The next steps are consistent and solid finishes, which he earned with a 12th-place finish at Atlanta in the spring and a 10th-place finish at COTA and what could’ve been a great Top-5 run at Sonoma.

That performance translating to the Round of 12, combined with Kansas where he finished fourth in the spring, could boost him all the way to the Round of 8.

In all reality, five of our panelists believe his run will end in the Round of 12. However, one panelist predicted him as the champion to go out on top.

We settled on the Round of 8 as a meet in the middle point that, given his performance, seems possible.

Chase Elliott

Like teammate Alex Bowman, 2024 has been a year for Chase Elliott to bounce back and find his groove again.

And Elliott has. He has a stellar average finish of 11.6 with a series-high 24 Top-20 finishes this season.

Elliott is the second instance of consensus among our panelists. Everyone believes he will make it to the Round of 8.

What will keep him from the Championship 4? Winning.

Elliott has just the win at Texas Motor Speedway in April and starts the playoffs seventh with 2014 points. From the start, that’s an eight-point deficit to overcome for a Championship 4 spot, which could be tough with how close the field is. The Round of 8 does present Martinsville, which was very good for Hendrick Motorsports and could be his moment to shine.

Ryan Blaney

The defending NASCAR Cup Series champion has outperformed his teammates and arguably his manufacturer this year, putting himself right near a Top-5 spot in points at the regular season and competing with the best of the best – and even beating them at certain points, like Pocono, Iowa and coming close at Indy.

The best thing Blaney has going for himself are his playoff points (18) and strong performances at Las Vegas, Homestead-Miami and Martinsville. He finished third at Vegas and fifth at Martinsville earlier this year, and ran well at Homestead last year.

What may stand in his way are the strength of the Toyotas and Hendrick Motorsports on the intermediates and short tracks. All that won’t matter if he can repeat at Martinsville, however.

Two panelists believe he will get to the Championship 4 while the other four believe his playoff run will end in the Round of 8.

Tyler Reddick

Short tracks, road courses, drafting tracks, intermediates… Nothing feels like kryptonite for Tyler Reddick and his 23XI Racing team, especially when you consider he has just two finishes outside of the Top-10 in the last 13 races. The race before that was Darlington where he nearly won after leading 174 laps.

This year’s playoffs are just so tight that even just running well every week might not be enough. Reddick has two wins, compared to each of the next three drivers each having three.

Our panelists believe that could hinder Reddick. Three panelists believe Reddick will make it to the Round of 8. The other three believe he will make the Championship 4 and, among them, one believes he will win the title.

Momentum is everything in NASCAR but it has to keep elevating itself. While Reddick looked good at the end of the regular season, and claimed the regular-season champion, the champ doesn’t always get it done at the end of the season. In fact, just three of the seven regular-season champs have won it all.

Reddick will need to start strong, build up a few more playoff points and continue to make himself undeniable to get into the Championship 4.

Championship 4

Christopher Bell

Checkers or wreckers! Bell has three wins, nine Top-5 finishes and 15 Top-10s in 26 races this season. He has also led 721 laps and starts the playoffs second with 32 playoff points.

The problem is, in the other 11 races, he has six DNFs and two finishes of 33rd at Las Vegas and 35th at Martinsville. Even in some of his Top-10 efforts, he had to overcome penalties to get there.

It’s no wonder why everyone is so split:

• One panelist believes that will take him out in the Round of 12
• Two panelists believe that will take him out in the Round of 8
• Three panelists believe he will make the Championship 4

Among those three, two panelists picked him as the champion – the most of any driver.

If you get Bell to the Championship 4 at Phoenix, watch out. He has consistently been lights out fast at tracks one mile and under. There’s a good chance he could get there with his 32 playoff points and being just good enough on intermediates.

Denny Hamlin

Is this his year? One panelist believes it is while three others believe he will come up short again in the Championship 4, while two believe he will end his run in the Round of 8.

Road courses have never been Hamlin’s strong suit, which could hurt him early on in the playoffs. But there are also the drafting tracks, Kansas and Bristol where Hamlin is class of the field.

The Round of 8 brings intermediate tracks and Martinsville. Martinsville is one of his best tracks while Hamlin is class on intermediates.

The points are so tight that it could go either way for Hamlin who, in totality, lost over 10 playoff points, with the recent engine penalty.

We believe he will get to the Championship 4 but will come up just short.

William Byron

All but one panelists picked William Byron for the Championship 4. That one panelist eliminated him in the Round of 8.

Byron has the strength of his playoff points (22) and history. His wins have come at Daytona, COTA and Martinsville – a drafting track, a road course and a short track. Combined with some solid pace on intermediates, and Byron appears to have a cakewalk to the Championship 4.

Of course, it’s not going to be easy. He has a thin four-point margin over fifth-place Ryan Blaney and an eight-point margin on Chase Elliott. But Byron showed last season he can reel off some unreal consistency, earning a win, six Top-5 finishes and eight Top-10s, never finishing worse than 15th, the entire playoffs, even after an inconsistent end to the regular season.

Replicating that this year, given the performance of his competitors, bodes well for Byron.

Champion: Kyle Larson

The driver self-professed to be better-than-Max Verstappen is our pick for the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series championship.

Larson picked up five Championship 4 votes from our panelists with one picking him for the championship.

If you’re wondering where Larson’s weakness is, it’s virtually nowhere. He leads the series in wins (4), laps led (1088) and playoff points (40). He is strong on road courses and short tracks this year, has won three times on big speedways and has even improved his luck/performance on drafting tracks.

Additionally, only once has a driver with as many playoff points or more than him missed the Championship 4, and that was after Kevin Harvick had a complete collapse in the Round of 8 in 2020.

At Phoenix, Larson hasn’t been the most standout driver at the track. But he and his team know how to pace themselves as the race goes on. They won in 2021 with a stellar pit stop after leading 107 of 312 laps. Last year, he led 207 of 317 laps in the spring before falling short. Then, in the fall, a strategy call nearly won him the championship.

Put together strong pace and savvy pit calls at a track like Phoenix, where Hendrick Motorsports has been so good, and Kyle Larson could likely walk with the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series championship.