Bubble drivers need strong runs to maintain final playoff spots
A year ago, Martin Truex Jr. entered the final race of the NASCAR Cup Series regular season as a three-time winner and the points leader.
This year, entering the regular-season finale, Truex is winless and still fighting to maintain a playoff spot.
With Harrison Burton’s upset win Saturday night at Daytona International Speedway, race winners own 13 of the 16 playoff positions. Here is what the battle for the final three spots looks like:
14. Martin Truex Jr: 695 points (+58 points to the cutline)
15. Ty Gibbs: 676 (+39)
16. Chris Buescher: 658 (+21)
17. Bubba Wallace: 637 (-21)
18. Ross Chastain: 631 (-27)
In theory, both Gibbs and Truex could lock in without having to do much at Darlington. Gibbs would need to maintain his advantage through the first two stages, while Truex would basically just need to start the race. That’s because the most points a driver can make up in a race is 59 points.
That’s only if no one below Buescher in points wins.
If someone below Buescher wins, Buescher will fall below the cutline. That means Truex and Gibbs would need to outpoint Buescher.
Truex is 37 points above Buescher (the cutline) while Gibbs is 18 points above. Truex is in a good spot to make the playoffs but just needs to maintain his advantage through the stages. If Truex can maintain his advantage over the cutline through the end of stage two, he will make the playoffs.
MORE: NASCAR points system, explained
Martin Truex Jr. is a two-time Darlington winner with his most recent win coming in May of 2021. If Truex can make the playoffs, it will mark his second-consecutive appearance and 11th overall.
“It’s been a great track for me, I think, just because I like it so much,” Truex said. “Hoping we can have a great run there this weekend.”
In May, Ty Gibbs won the pole and collected 17 stage points en route to a runner-up finish. Gibbs is on the cusp of making his first playoff appearance , still in search of his first NASCAR Cup Series win.
“We finished second there in the Spring, I think we have the speed to go win it, so I think it would be cool to get my first win at the Southern 500. That would be awesome,” Gibbs said.
Similar to Truex, Chris Buescher was locked into last year’s playoffs with three victories – but is winless so far this season. Buescher making the playoffs would mark his first time making back-to-back playoff appearances.
“We go into Darlington with points being what they are, yeah. A little bit of a cushion there,” Buescher said. “We know we were really good there last time. We’ll try and seal the deal this go-around and make it easy going into the playoffs.”
In May, a late-race battle for the lead with Tyler Reddick ended badly for Buescher. Reddick drove into turn three too hard and pushed Buescher into the wall. Subsequently, they both had to pit each with a blown tire.
Buescher, coming off of being 0.001 second from victory the week before, angrily confronted Reddick on pit road after coming so close to victory again. He grabbed Reddick, who then apologized before Buescher pointed to Reddick’s Talladega win sticker, saying “We don’t have that sticker on our door. This means more.”
It means a whole lot more to Buescher as, if he had won that day, we wouldn’t even be talking about him possibly missing the playoffs.
See how Buescher will fare in the Cook Out Southern 500, scheduled for this Sunday.
MORE: NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington 2024: Odds, TV times and more info
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Dominic Aragon View All
Dominic Aragon is currently the editor-in-chief for The Racing Experts.
From Grants, New Mexico, USA, Aragon started watching NASCAR in 2004 and has been covering the sport since 2009. Aragon is a 2012 graduate of Grants High School and a May 2016 graduate of the University of New Mexico with a B.A. in Mass Communications & Journalism. Aragon has worked in local and national media, as a musician, and an educator. He is co-author of the 2024 book "All of It: Daytona 500 Champion Tells the Rest of the Story" with racer Geoff Bodine.
Aragon, his wife Feliz, and son Christopher currently reside in Grants, New Mexico, USA.
You can reach Dominic at daragon@theracingexperts.net.