Denny Hamlin enters Bristol in rare air

BRISTOL, Tenn. — Denny Hamlin is the favorite to win this weekend’s Bass Pro Shops Bristol Night Race and it couldn’t come at a better time for him.

Dating back to the start of the elimination-style format in 2014, Hamlin is off to his second-worst start to the playoffs. This season, he has finished 24th at Atlanta after an effort to play it safe woefully backfired. Then, he finished 23rd at Watkins Glen after incidents on the first lap and the start of the final stage.

As a result, Hamlin sits six points below the NASCAR Cup Series playoff cutline. If he’s still below the cutline after Bristol, his championship run will end.

Comparing this year to that worst start to the playoffs, in 2018, Hamlin started the playoffs that year with a crash and 32nd-place finish at Las Vegas. Then, he finished 16th at Richmond and 12th at the Charlotte Roval, eliminating him from the playoffs in the Round of 16.

Bristol is a far better track for Hamlin to face elimination. In the Gen 7 era at Bristol, he has the best average finish (3.7) and has averaged the third-most points of any driver (39.7), far ahead of his competitors above the cutline:

• Ty Gibbs (+6 to Hamlin/the cutline): 30 points
• Chase Briscoe (+6): 24 points

And his competitors below him who are also below the cutline:

• Brad Keselowski (-12 points to Gibbs and Briscoe/the cutline): 39 points
• Martin Truex Jr (-14): 22 points
• Harrison Burton (-20): 11.7 points

Hamlin might not even need to worry about points. He is looking to become just the fifth driver in track history to win three or more in a row:

• Fred Lorenzen: 3 wins in-a-row (July 1963, March-July ’64)
• Cale Yarborough: 4 in-a-row (March-Aug. 1976, April-Aug. ’77)
• Darrell Waltrip: 7 in-a-row (March-Aug. 1981; March-Aug. 1982, May-Aug. 1983, April ’84)
• Kurt Busch: 3 in-a-row (March-Aug. 2003, March ’04)

A driver has won three in-a-row every 20 years, dating back to the track’s inception in 1961. The time is now for a driver to again win three Bristol races in-a-row but it all starts with qualifying.

No surprise, qualifying is another thing that Hamlin excels at.

In the 15 races with qualifying on the current configuration, Hamlin has just two starts outside of the Top-10 (August 2014, April 2018). In the Gen 7 era, he has qualified no worse than fourth.

Back in March, Hamlin qualified third and went to victory lane. He and four other drivers finished on the lead lap, thanks to careful conservation unexpectedly needed to make the tires last as long as possible before they gave out.

Those tires are back this weekend but teams aren’t going in blind like they did in the spring. As a result, teams are prepared to mitigate wear and not make tire conservation as much of a factor Saturday night.

Tire conservation, the odds are in Hamlin’s favor to earn a walkoff win that he and his team badly need. He has had no wins and eight finishes of 23rd or worse in the last 13 races, compared to three wins and eight Top-10 finishes in the 13 races before that. On top of it, NASCAR severely penalized Hamlin and his team for the mishandling of the engine used for his Bristol win, taking away – directly and indirectly – 13 valuable playoff points.

Hamlin, then could garner as many as seven of those playoff points if he can sweep the first two stages and win Saturday night.

Either way, it’s all about surviving and advancing. The first test is coming soon.

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