Denny Hamlin: NASCAR Cup Chase 2026 Preview

Denny Hamlin had won the NASCAR Cup Series regular season championship prior to the finale at Daytona. Now he enters the chase as the first seed and the best chance to win his first career championship.

This will be his 20th career NASCAR Cup Series postseason appearance, first among active drivers, and his 13th consecutive.

The veteran Joe Gibbs Racing driver has only missed one postseason opportunity in his career in 2013 and made the first iteration of the chase from 2006-2012.

Hamlin will enter the Chase with the maximum 100-point advantage to 16th and with his first regular season championship.

After he swooped in to steal the regular season title from Tyler Reddick, is his first official Cup Series championship on the horizon?

The Regular Season Title Run

After a brutal way to end the 2025 season and following offseason, Denny Hamlin entered 2026 like a lost soul just wondering about.

There were lingering doubts about his status for this season. But, by the time he strapped in for the first time he continued his winning ways without skipping a beat.

After an uninspired Daytona 500 finish of 31st, Hamlin went on to have a career regular season.

Four wins, four poles, plus the Dover all-star race victory highlights his stellar season so far. The most amazing stat for him entering the Chase would have to be his average finish.

Hamlin currently has his best average finish in a season of his career through 26-races. A series-best 8.2 even bests his own personal season in 2021 by .2 of a position.

In order to have a stat like that Hamlin only finished outside of the top 15 three times. Which makes understanding how he clawed back from a near 100-point deficit to Tyler Reddick before Michigan International Speedway easier to swallow.

With Reddick struggling and Hamlin freight-training his way through the dog days of the regular season he took the lead from him by a single point after Sonoma.

The NASCAR statistics group gave Denny a probability of under 10% to claim the regular season title prior to June. After the month was over, it soared to 67%.

That’s what three-straight wins can do for a driver. From there he went onto finish out the regular season unchallenged for the regular season championship for a near flawless run to the Chase.

But he’s choked away familiar situations before. What makes this season any different?

2026 Chase Outlook

There are a multitude of things that make this season the championship season for Denny Hamlin.

The first is the obvious advantage that comes with the first seed and as the title favorite. The next are shown through his raw statistics and racecraft.

A career-best average finish combined with many series-leading categories makes Hamlin the force to be wrecken with.

There’s also momentum to be found at every track in the Chase as Hamlin has found victory lane everywhere. Specifically he should find Las Vegas, Gateway, and Martinsville to be his best chances to win.

He will enter two of those races as the defending winner (Las Vegas and Gateway) and the near winner in the spring (Martinsville).

Yes, the numbers are on Denny’s side and they have been before. What’s truly different this season are the intangibles.

As Hamlin enters his 20th postseason he boasts the most experience. Another thing that is hard to teach is his tenacity and drive to win, especially at his age.

Finally it’s for his family and for himself. He already has given his ideal retirement date of 2027 and is driven to accomplish his final goal of a championship while the iron is hot.

If Hamlin and his No. 11 can maintain their current momentum and good form, a maidan championship is on the horizon.

Ceiling: Champion Floor: Third

Hamlin’s 2026 Overview

2026 Stats

• 5 wins including All-Star
  • Las Vegas, Dover All-Star, Nashville, Michigan, Pocono
• 4 Poles
  • Martinsville, Michigan, Pocono, Chicagoland
• 5 stage wins
• 14 top-fives, 17 top-tens with 0 DNF’s (series-best)
• 11.5 avg start, 8.5 avg finish (series-best)
  • Avg. Running Position of 10.795 (second-best)
• 880 laps led (series-best)
  • led season-high 292 laps in runners-up Martinsville result
• Driver Rating of 100.6 (series-best)

Strengths

• Finishing races with frontrunning consistency
• Veteran swagger with stats on his side
• Qualifying beast in 2026

Weaknesses

• Postseason blues
• Late-race execution
• Luck