Denny Hamlin: NASCAR Cup playoff 2025 preview

Let’s get one question out of the way for the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs: Is this Denny Hamlin’s year?

Maybe.

Denny Hamlin is coming into the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs with a lot of momentum from a strong summer run (we won’t talk about the road courses).
After Daytona, he is in the No. 3 seed with regular season champion William Byron three points ahead.

It’s game-on in the playoffs at Darlington — one of his favorite tracks no less.

Denny’s year? Let’s see.

Strengths and Weaknesses for Denny Hamlin

Denny Hamlin’s No. 11 team has arguably built the most raw speed over the course of the regular season.

Hamlin started the season with a lot of questions about his performance with longtime crew chief Chris Gabehart out and crew chief Chris Gayle in for 2025. The season started slower with three finishes worse than 21st in the first five races but race No. 6 at Homestead-Miami Speedway started to set the tone.

Hamlin led laps at Homestead-Miami and was a contender to win before finishing fifth. Then, Hamlin reeled off two completely different wins in the next two weeks — a classic butt-whooping win with 274 of 400 laps at Martinsville and just 10 laps led, including the final six, in overtime at Darlington. Coming off of the two wins, Hamlin finished second at Bristol and sat second in points.

A four-race stretch outside of the top-15 couldn’t stop Hamlin who had winning speed at Kansas and Charlotte, if not for drivetrain and fuel issues. All of it was no matter as it would take another two months for Hamlin to find himself not finishing in the top-five in back-to-back weeks.

Hamlin earned his other wins at two completely different tracks but all in clutch fashion — leading the final four laps at Michigan and the final 67 laps at Dover.

Hamlin has had winning pace at Nashville Superspeedway, Pocono and Richmond.

Again, all completely different tracks. Hamlin is an obvious favorite for the title – but there is one weakness.

Denny Hamlin in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs

Hamlin is a past winner of eight of the 10 tracks in the playoffs, including the Championship round at Phoenix Raceway:

• Round of 16: Darlington, Gateway, Bristol
• Round of 12: New Hampshire, Kansas, Charlotte Roval
• Round of 8: Las Vegas, Talladega, Martinsville
• Championship 4: Phoenix

Darlington and Bristol are strongholds for Hamlin. Needing just 16-19 points per race to advance to the Round of 16, Hamlin just needs a decent finish at Gateway to advance to the Round of 12.

• Round of 16
  • 2,077 – Four-season average points total to advance
  • 2,085 – Points total to advance in 2024

The one weakness for Hamlin are road courses. Luckily, the Round of 12 is the only round with one – the Charlotte Roval. Around it are two of his top tracks.

• Round of 12
  • 3,106 – Average
  • 3,104 – 2024

Looking at the Round of 12, Hamlin would need to average around 25-26 points minimum to advance. If he can remain on pace with his NextGen points average, he is due to earn around 33 points at New Hampshire and 43 at Kansas.

Heading into the Roval, that would put him in a nice spot to advance to the Round of 8.

While Hamlin has struggled in the Round of 8 before, this year feels different. There is momentum going and it’s shaping up for something big for him. History also is on hisde.

In the Round of 8, Hamlin hasn’t finished outside of the top-10 in a Talladega playoff race since 2015. His NextGen playoff finishes at Talladega are 10th in 2024, third in 2023 and fifth in 2022, averaging 34 points per race in that span.

Hamlin has averaged 42 points per NextGen race at Martinsville and 37 points per NextGen race at Las Vegas (excluding two outlier races). Staying on pace would allow him to make the Championship 4 on points with no wins needed, per the 38-43 points per race average historically needed.

Of course, earning playoff points from race wins and stage wins will help his case. With the fourth-most stage wins and tied for the most race wins this season, with four apiece, it’d be a surprise to not see him earn anything before the Round of 8.

• Round of 8
  • 4,141 – Four-season average points total to advance
  • 4,156 – Points total to advance in 2024

All that’s left is Phoenix where Hamlin finished second in the spring and has done well in the strategy-style races the Championship race is shaping up to be.

Plus, time is ticking. With his new contract extension and what Hamlin has said, he likely only has two more years left. It’s unclear how well he will perform in those years, so for all we know… This is Denny’s year.

Denny Hamlin playoff overview

2025 stats:

• Four wins
• 11 top-five finishes, 13 top-10 finishes
• 555 of 5,954 laps led
• 13.9 average finish
• Three DNFs

Strengths:

• Seemingly no one has carried — and built — more raw speed than him
• Great on shorter tracks
• Showing up when needed
  • 10 laps led at Darlington, 5 laps led at Michigan, 67 of 400 laps led at Dover

Weaknesses:

• Closing out a championship… is this Denny’s year?
• Trouble down the stretch in the NextGen era