Kyle Larson: NASCAR Cup Chase 2026 Preview

Despite his ongoing 49-race winless streak, Kyle Larson has returned to the NASCAR Cup Series chase to defend his 2025 championship.

This is Larson’s tenth time making a NASCAR Cup Series postseason. 2026 marks his sixth consecutive all with Hendrick Motorsports which includes both of his championship seasons.

The reigning champ maintained a top ten points position since Phoenix in March, but his Chase status remained unquestioned throughout the regular season.

He enters the 2026 Chase in the seventh seed as the highest placing Hendrick Motorsport driver. Despite the less than ideal seed, Larson still has time to rekindle his championship aspirations with the familiar victory lanes the Chase offers.

If he can at least capture one checkered flag, it will be more than what he could accomplish in the regular season. But this dry-spell has only existed in the Cup Series.

Winning Everywhere Else

Kyle Larson entered the 2026 season on top the of NASCAR world as its defending champion. But the team was as hungry as ever to get back to victory lane.

A few incidents at Atlanta and Darlington stunted the start of his season in the standings. While he failed to win at the Cup level, his non-Cup Series schedule had just begun with a bang.

He won twice in the NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series in the spring at Las Vegas and a successful defending win at Texas.

His best chance to return to victory lane at Bristol where he fell flat once again. He led a race-high 284 laps but came home third.

Then one week later, he came within two car lengths of defending his Kansas win near the one year mark of his previous Cup win.

With the year mark past he suffered the first consecutive sub 20th-place skid of the season. His position in the standings had him fall outside of the top five which he would momentarily hold one more time in the regular season from there.

For his wins he turned to his first love, sprint car racing. Larson once again dominated his Interstate Batteries High Limit Sprint races he entered. That winning feeling never left him but the monkey stayed well on his back in the Cup Series.

After Charlotte his results recovered but as soon as July came around, they faltered once again.

Larson suffered his worst stretch of the regular season right off the back of his best. After four straight top-five results he placed lower than 33rd in four of his next five races.

The team needed a turnaround and quick to content for the fifth Chase seed.

The fight never materialized. He claimed his first top ten in nearly two months at Richmond and used all of his luck for the rain in Iowa. With the stoppage in action, he made it to Iowa in time. Then, he went onto win the most prestigious race in all of sprint car racing with a Knoxville Nationals win.

From the O’Reilly Series to the clay, Larson won in everything but his full-time series. If he is going to defend his title, a win or two has to be in the cards.

2026 Chase Outlook

Last season, Kyle Larson clinched his second championship in dramatic late race fashion. While he capitalized on what that current situation was, he failed to win.

Actually, he won the championship without a win since May of 2025 which either says a lot about the playoff system or how Larson could possible defend his title in 2026.

There are a few tracks in the Chase where Larson has his best chance to snap his winless streak. Since 2022, he has found victory land at six of the final ten tracks.

Darlington, Bristol, Kansas, Las Vegas, Martinsville, and the season finale at Homestead-Miami can all be repeat winning venues for the No. 5 team to circle.

Their personal battle’s are not the only thing against the team. Their seventh seeding leaves the team with an outside chance to instantly put their hat in the ring unless they achieve that elusive victory.

He also has to compete with drivers with fantastic momentum heading into the Chase such as Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, and even Joey Logano who is two positions lower than him in the standings.

If Larson wants to successfully defend his 2025 title, he and crew chief Cliff Daniels will have to continue to work well together, repair their top ten consistency that has dipped in the summer, and grab a few wins.

Ceiling: Champion Floor: Tenth

Larson’s Season Overview

2026 Stats

• 0 wins
  • 1 runners-up finish
• 0 poles
  • 4 front-row starts
• 5 stage wins
• 9 top-five finishes, 13 top-ten finishes with 3 DNF’s
• 9.7 avg start, 17.2 avg finish
  • Avg. Running Position of 12.957 (fifth-best)
• 659 laps led (third-most)
  • led season-high 284 laps in third place Bristol finish
• Driver Rating of 93.0 (fourth-best)

Strengths

• Average running placement
• Intermediates
• Defending Champion

Weaknesses

• Finishing where he starts
• Getting over the dry spell
• Superspeedways