NASCAR Championship 4 preview: Who could pull off the ultimate, historic upset at Phoenix?
AVONDALE, Ariz. — Six drivers have the chance at the ultimate upset that could change the course of NASCAR history and how champions are decided.
Going into the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Championship Race, Corey Heim leads in essentially every stat – as punctuated by a record 11 wins on the season.
Going into the NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race, Connor Zilisch also leads in essentially every stat – as accentuated by a stout 10 wins this season.
However, Heim and Zilisch are each tied with three of their season-long competitors going into Friday and Saturday.
It’s a tough pill to swallow for many who have seen the young guns dominate their respective series. Zilisch set a new record for most consecutive top-five finishes in the NASCAR Xfinity Series while Heim set a new record for most wins in a single season NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series season.
At this point in the season, one of them winning in their respective series feels inevitable – but so does one of them losing.
How does the competition stack up?
Zilisch has just one more top-10 finish (22) than the next closest driver (Jesse Love, 21) and has led 13 more laps than the next closest driver (986 – Zilisch, 973 – Justin Allgaier).
On the other hand, compared to the next closest driver, Zilisch also has six more wins (Austin Hill – 4), five more top-five finishes (Allgaier – 14), four more poles (Love – 4) and an average finish 3.2 positions better (Love – 11.4). He has also scored the most points over the course of this season by a margin of 57 points (over Justin Allgaier) – equivalent to almost a race worth of points.
Love and Allgaier also beat Zilisch in the spring at Phoenix Raceway. In fact, Allgaier led 130 of 208 laps before faltering in overtime.
The other guy? An underdog of sorts – Carson Kvapil.
Kvapil snuck into the Championship 4 with a strong points run boosted by a season-long average start that is half a position better than Zilisch. In fact, Kvapil is the only driver who is outdoing Zilisch in any statline this season. He’s a sneaky pick.
Trucks are a much, much different story among the Championship 4 field.
Corey Heim has 10 more wins than every other Championship 4 driver combined (Heim – 11 vs. 1), double the top-five finishes of the next closest driver (Heim – 18, Ty Majeski – 9), eight times the laps led compared the next closest driver (Heim – 1,525, Majeski – 190) and has averaged a finish of 5.2 all season compared to the next closest driver, Majeski, who has averaged a 10.2.
The red-white-and-black cherry on top is Heim has earned the most points this season by a margin of 284 points – or more than five races worth of points.
Anything less than a championship for Heim is arguably a travesty – and there’s a decent chance NASCAR could be damned Friday night.
Ty Majeski came up a lot in the stats comparison and for good reason. He won the championship last year after leading 132 of 150 laps at Phoenix. The year before, he led 48 laps and had a strong truck until hell broke loose in the infamous, closing laps.
Competitor Kaden Honeycutt has quietly stepped up his game in the last few races, earning at least 41 points and starting fifth in each of the last three races and finishing second most recently at Martinsville.
Tyler Ankrum, well, he is the underdog in this fight – but his consistency could prevail if others have issues.
If Majeski, Honeycutt or Ankrum can defeat Heim on Friday – and Zilisch can be defeated Saturday – NASCAR fans will be loud.
The biggest discussion has been about the championship format and supporters of certain formats would have nuclear ammunition for their argument.
In any other motorsport or almost any other NASCAR championship format, a season like Xfinity or Trucks this year would’ve had the champion decided long ago.
In this format, fans who tune in know their champion is based on what they’ve seen. Their reward is that driver being rewarded – and that passion should be treated with care in an age where NASCAR’s decisions in the present will critically shape its future.
Friday and Saturday will be the first look at what that future may be like.
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Jonathan Fjeld View All
Jonathan Fjeld is the co-owner of the The Racing Experts, LLC. He has been with TRE since 2010.
A Twin Valley, MN, native, Fjeld became a motorsports fan at just three years old (first race was the 2002 Pennsylvania 500). He worked as a contributor and writer for TRE from 2010-18. Since then, he has stepped up and covered 24 NASCAR race weekends and taken on a larger role with TRE. He became the co-owner and managing editor in 2023 and has guided the site to massive growth in that time.
Fjeld has covered a wide array of stories and moments over the years, including Kevin Harvick's final Cup Series season, the first NASCAR national series disqualification in over 50 years, Shane van Gisbergen's stunning win in Chicago and the first Cup Series race at Road America in 66 years – as well as up-and-coming drivers' stories and stories from inside the sport, like the tech it takes for Hendrick Motorsports to remain a top-tier team.
Currently, he resides in Albuquerque, N.M., where he works for KOB 4, an NBC station. He works as a digital producer and does on-air reports. He loves spending time with friends and family, playing and listening to music, exploring new places, being outdoors, reading books and writing among other activities. You can email him at fjeldjonathan@gmail.com