NASCAR Cup playoff cutline tightens with new winner at Pocono

LONG POND, Pa. — Chase Briscoe tightened the NASCAR Cup Series playoff cutline even further with his first win of the 2025 season Sunday at Pocono Raceway.

Briscoe became the 11th different winner, leaving just five spots open for drivers to make the playoffs on points. Nine races remain in the regular season, including five possible wild cards, which means winners could fill every spot.

Atlanta, Chicago, Sonoma, Watkins Glen and Daytona are the glaring examples of tracks that threaten a new winner but a surprise winner could come almost anywhere. While Chase Briscoe winning wasn’t completely unexpected, not everyone picked him to win at Pocono. 

The five drivers who would be in on points at the moment are:

• Chase Elliott +120
  • Elliott has consistently been in the mix but has yet to really compete for a win this season
• Tyler Reddick +107
  • Reddick has yet to kick things into gear in 2025 after a scorching hot summer run last season
• Chris Buescher +38
  • Buescher may be closest to victory of the five. He had race winning speed Sunday and has quietly put together a solid string of races 
• Bubba Wallace +29
• Alex Bowman +20
  • Wallace and Bowman have shown solid speed at times but have had inconsistent finishes recently

When TRE asked NASCAR Cup Series playoff bubble driver Chris Buescher about how he approaches a tight points position four weeks ago, when the bubble was much tighter, he brushed that off.

“We’ve been able to recognize that it’s always a must-win situation. From the beginning of the year, you have to win races,” Buescher said. “There’s been a couple of times where we’ve been right there in a good spot or been right there in that window and just get a surprise winner or two to close the regular season.”

Last season, four new winners whittled the playoff spots for non-winners from five spots to just one, eliminating Buescher when the playoff field was set.

These drivers below the cutline could prove to upset the playoff hopefuls currently in.

• Ryan Preece -20
• AJ Allmendinger -59
• Erik Jones -62
• Kyle Busch -63
• Carson Hocevar -70
• Michael McDowell -71
• John Hunter Nemechek -71

Preece and Hocevar have wildly exceeded expectations in 2025 and have been excruciatingly close to winning at various points this season. Atlanta presents another chance for Hocevar, who finished second in a three-wide finish under caution in February.

Allmendinger, Jones, McDowell and Nemechek have all shown better overall speed in 2025 but have golden opportunities at the wild card tracks still yet to come. For Allmendinger and McDowell, especially, the road courses should be circled on their calendars. 

Then, there’s Kyle Busch.

Apart from Busch’s eighth-place run at Michigan, he hasn’t finished higher than 12th since Darlington in April. He only has five top-10 finishes in 17 points-paying races this season, in fact.

Last season should give Busch some hope for pulling off a late-season hot streak. After struggling to find the top-10 for much of last season, Busch rattled off three consecutive top-five finishes to end the regular season, including two heartbreaking second-place finishes that shut him out of the playoffs.

Time will tell if Busch has the same late regular-season charge in him this season. Time is running out, however.

NEXT: Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway; Saturday, June 28 (7 p.m. ET; TV: TNT/Max, Radio: Performance Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90)