NASCAR: Off-week points leader has won Cup title 5 times in Chase era
The NASCAR Cup Series season resumes this weekend at Iowa Speedway, kicking off the final stretch of 14 consecutive race weekends.
Denny Hamlin controls the driver’s standings lead with an 84-point cushion over Tyler Reddick.
Since the inception of the Chase and post-season formats in 2004, the points-leader at the last off-week for the NASCAR Cup Series points-awarding schedule has gone on to win the championship five times since 2004.
History
The last off-week from points racing during the Chase era (2004-present), with the exception of 2020 and 2025, typically falls between June and August.
From a mathematical perspective, the driver leading at the final off-week points has gone on to win the championship with a 23 percent success rate.
The drivers who have done so are Jimmie Johnson (2006), Jimmie Johnson (2013), Martin Truex Jr. (2017), Kyle Busch (2019), and Kyle Larsaon (2025).
In 2021, Hamlin was the points leader after the final off-week, ultimately making the Championship 4 and finishing third in points.
You can view the entire list below featuring who was the points leader, when the last off-week of that season occurred, how many wins they ended the year with, and where the finished in final points.
| YEAR | RACE BEFORE OFF-WEEK | PTS LEADER | WINS | FINAL RANK |
| 2026 | Indianapolis | Denny Hamlin | 4* | ? |
| 2025 | Kansas | Kyle Larson | 6 | 1 |
| 2024 | Indianapolis | Kyle Larson | 3 | 6 |
| 2023 | Sonoma | Martin Truex Jr. | 3 | 11 |
| 2022 | Sonoma | Chase Elliott | 5 | 4 |
| 2021 | Loudon | Denny Hamlin | 2 | 3 |
| 2020 | Phoenix | Kevin Harvick | 9 | 5 |
| 2019 | Bristol | Kyle Busch | 5 | 1 |
| 2018 | Bristol | Kyle Busch | 8 | 4 |
| 2017 | Bristol | Martin Truex Jr. | 8 | 1 |
| 2016 | Watkins Glen | Brad Keselowski | 4 | 12 |
| 2015 | Bristol | Kevin Harvick | 3 | 2 |
| 2014 | Loudon | Jeff Gordon | 4 | 5 |
| 2013 | Loudon | Jimmie Johnson | 6 | 1 |
| 2012 | Loudon | Matt Kenseth | 3 | 7 |
| 2011 | Loudon | Carl Edwards | 1 | 2 |
| 2010 | Bristol | Kevin Harvick | 3 | 3 |
| 2009 | Bristol | Tony Stewart | 4 | 6 |
| 2008 | Joliet | Kyle Busch | 8 | 10 |
| 2007 | Joliet | Jeff Gordon | 6 | 2 |
| 2006 | Pocono | Jimmie Johnson | 5 | 1 |
| 2005 | Pocono | Jimmie Johnson | 4 | 5 |
| 2004 | Joliet | Jimmie Johnson | 8 | 2 |
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Dominic Aragon View All
Dominic Aragon is currently the editor-in-chief for The Racing Experts.
From Grants, New Mexico, USA, Aragon started watching NASCAR in 2004 and has been covering the sport since 2009. Aragon is a 2012 graduate of Grants High School and a May 2016 graduate of the University of New Mexico with a B.A. in Mass Communications & Journalism. Aragon has worked in local and national media, as a musician, and an educator. He is co-author of the 2024 book "All of It: Daytona 500 Champion Tells the Rest of the Story" with racer Geoff Bodine.
Aragon, his wife Feliz, and son Christopher currently reside in Grants, New Mexico, USA.
You can reach Dominic at daragon@theracingexperts.net.