NASCAR O’Reilly Series Chase Bubble Watch

The NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series Chase begins once their 24-race regular season concludes with a battle under the lights at Daytona tomorrow night.

Here is the current Chase bubble situation ahead of their final regular season race.

Already Clinched

Eight drivers have already locked themselves into the 12-driver Chase heading into the final regular-season race at Daytona.

Justin Allgaier clinched the regular-season championship and the No. 1 seed at Iowa. He first took control of the points standings after earning his first of six wins this season at Phoenix Raceway in March.

Allgaier has held the points lead for months, but his teammate Carson Kvapil recently moved into second.

Kvapil has emerged as the hottest driver in the series. The sophomore has won two consecutive races and recently signed a contract extension with JR Motorsports. With his first win and 2027 plans no longer hanging over him, Kvapil and crew chief Rodney Childers can turn their full attention toward the ultimate goal.

Sheldon Creed sits comfortably in third, holding nearly a 30-point cushion on both sides of him heading into the Chase.

Defending series champion Jesse Love has secured the fourth seed as he prepares to move to the NASCAR Cup Series. He recently slipped to fourth following a poor showing at Indianapolis.

Corey Day currently occupies the coveted fifth position and is on track to make the Chase. However, an early exit at Daytona could send him tumbling as far down as eighth.

Brandon Jones is the lone Joe Gibbs Racing driver already locked into the Chase before the final race. He sits sixth, just nine points behind Day and within striking distance of the top five.

Austin Hill faces a similar situation. He holds seventh and sits just 12 points behind fifth heading into Daytona.

Finally, Sammy Smith secured his Chase spot following his home-state race at Iowa.

The Bubble

Four spots remain up for grabs heading into Daytona, although ninth remains the most difficult position for drivers below the cutline to reach.

Parker Retzlaff has set a high bar in his first season with Viking Motorsports. He holds the best chance of anyone on the bubble, carrying a 45-point cushion over the cutline.

Sam Mayer follows in 10th with a 19-point advantage. That cushion gives him some breathing room heading into the chaos of Daytona.

From there, four drivers will battle for the final two Chase spots.

William Sawalich and Brent Crews currently sit above the cutline, each holding a one-point advantage.

Their teammate Taylor Gray has dealt with nearly every kind of issue imaginable across 17 of the 23 races this season. Despite those struggles, he sits just one point behind his JGR teammates and enters Daytona with nearly the same opportunity to make the Chase.

Rajah Caruth rounds out the group of drivers still eligible for the Chase. Caruth has split the season between JR Motorsports and Jordan Anderson Racing, but he still has a path into the postseason.

To make the final 12, Caruth will need misfortune to strike at least two of the JGR Toyotas ahead of him as the premier Toyota team in the series has the best chance to fill the final two positions for the drivers championship.

Owners Championship

The owners championship regular season standings has three key differences than its counterpart.

The first major difference is the team sitting third. JR Motorsports has placed its all-star No. 88 entry into the Chase, never dropping below third in the standings.

The Cup Series-backed combination of Hendrick Motorsports drivers and its current anchor driver Rajah Caruth gave them the edge to lock in.

Now, Caruth enters the postseason in prime position to at the very least battle for the owners championship.

The second difference is the position of Joe Gibbs Racing’s No. 19 relative to the cutline. In the drivers’ standings, Brent Crews holds the lone point advantage over the cutline largely because NASCAR’s age restrictions limited his schedule.

Crews was 17 for the first six weeks into the season and could not compete at tracks 1.5 miles or longer. He therefore missed four of the opening six races.

The No. 19, however, has competed in every race. Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell and Gio Ruggiero have shared the entry and helped it lock into the Chase.

That leads to the final major difference in how the No. 19 and No. 88 reshape the overall owners cutline.

After accounting for the additional points earned by those full-time entries, the cutline now falls to Haas Factory Team’s No. 41.

Mayer sits two spots higher in the drivers’ standings, but his team enters Daytona just 18 points ahead of the JGR No. 18 in this format.

A poor finish at Daytona could put Mayer’s Chase spot in danger which could open the door for one of the two JGR entries to advance in the owners’ standings.

Finally, the fifth JR Motorsports entry still has a mathematical path into the Chase, but the team did not enter the car at Daytona.

Sitting 52 points below the cutline, that decision effectively ends its postseason hopes.

If all stays calm, these standing should be the less volatile of the two.

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