Playoff bubble remains tight heading to Daytona

BROOKLYN, Mich. — With just two races to go until the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, the battle around the cutline is scorching hot leaving Michigan. 

As things stand heading to Daytona, Ross Chastain is the final driver currently in the playoffs, at just one point above the cutline – ahead of Bubba Wallace. The next closest driver is Kyle Busch at -93 points. 

Busch earned the No. 8 team’s first stage win of the season with a win stage two Monday morning. He was also in contention for a win that would’ve guaranteed him a playoff spot but just couldn’t hang on with older tires. He finished fourth and will likely need a win to get into the playoffs.

Busch had a quiet day – in stark contrast to everyone else near the cutline.

Chris Buescher entered Michigan tied with Ross Chastain for the final playoff spot. Buescher, who won at Michigan last year, showed speed early on, finishing fifth in stage one.

At the end of stage two, as Buescher was coming through the field on newer tires, Kyle Larson spun and triggered an incident that involved him and six other drivers.

Buescher had damage but stayed on the lead lap when overtime rolled around. With newer tires, he clipped through the field and finished sixth. Going into the Coke Zero Sugar 400, a race he won last year, Buescher is 16 points above the cutline.

Bubba Wallace wasn’t as lucky. Wallace led five laps early on after a bold three-wide pass and showed race-winning speed, finishing fourth in stage one.

Wallace was right behind Larson when he broke loose at the end of stage two. As a result, the 23XI Racing driver’s car receive front-end damage that took away his possibly race-winning pace.

In the end, Wallace finished 26th, one lap down.

A position ahead of him in the final running order was Ross Chastain. Chastain was running much better than that – 11th in fact – when the first overtime began. But during that first overtime, Chastain spun on the backstretch and fell a lap.

Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace leave Michigan with more damage taken than done. Ty Gibbs, who sits above those two and Buescher, did the opposite.

Gibbs started 19th and brought home a third-place finish. After a hot start to 2024, the No. 54 team has cooled off significantly. Monday’s result was just his second top-10 finish since the Coca-Cola 600.

Gibbs netted eight bonus points that allowed him to gain 18 points on the cutline. With two regular-season races left, he is now +39 points to the cutline.

Teammate Martin Truex Jr. arrived in Michigan at +81 to the cutline. Truex was in prime position to widen that gap until he slapped the wall with six laps to go Monday morning, bringing out the caution that sending the race into overtime.

Truex finished the day in 24th. He did get three stage points in stage one and four in stage two so his gap only lost four points to the cutline:

13. Martin Truex Jr: 682 points (+77 points to the cutline)
14. Ty Gibbs: +39
15. Chris Buescher: +16
16. Ross Chastain: +1
17. Bubba Wallace: -1 point to the cutline
18. Kyle Busch: -93
19. Chase Briscoe: -115

Playoff clinch scenarios at Daytona

Just win.

That is the MO if you’re Busch, Briscoe or any of the 15 other drivers not within a race worth of points of the cutline.

The odds are in their favor too. Since the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona moved to near the end of the regular season in 2020, a driver on the bubble has won this race every other year:

• 2020: William Byron (was+4 points to the cutline before Daytona)
• 2022: Austin Dillon (was 19th in points, -225 points to the cutline before Daytona)

That bodes well for Bubba Wallace, who has a good record on drafting-dependent tracks. For him, Truex, Gibbs, Buescher and Chastain, a win will also solve a lot of problems but one of them may not need that to lock themselves in.

If Truex is 60 points or more above the cutline after Daytona, he won’t have to worry about Darlington. Even if there’s a new winner at Daytona, Truex could still lock in as he is 61 and 76 points ahead of Buescher and Chastain, the first two drivers above the cutline respectively.

Every driver near the cutline will need to be on top of their game at Daytona. The prospect of a new winner further outside the playoff bubble would lessen each driver’s chances heading into the regular-season finale at Darlington. 

The Coke Zero Sugar 400 is set to go green flag 7:30 p.m. ET this Saturday at Daytona International Speedway.

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