TRE predicts the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Chase

The playoff era in NASCAR is officially over and the second iteration of the Chase for the Cup is here.

With a new points format in place for 2026, our Racing Experts assembled a preseason prediction of what the 16-driver NASCAR Cup Series Chase field could look like.

• Everything you need to know about the Chase in 2026

We weighed several factors, including four-year Next Gen averages, offseason momentum, organizational strength, each driver’s potential for a breakout season and more to make up our selections.

In no particular order, here are our selections for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season.

Kyle Larson – Hendrick Motorsports

When a driver is in top-tier equipment during the prime of their career, they have to kick off our list.

Kyle Larson enters 2026 with clear momentum. Since the debut of the Next Gen car, he has delivered multiple wins each season and led more than 1,100 laps on average each season.

Larson also led the series in total points over the full 2025 season, which further exemplifies his potential success in this system.

A 13.7 average finish, 16 wins and 77 top-10 finishes in that same stretch, the defending champion earns an unquestioned spot in the Chase.

Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin came tragically close to a title in 2025 and enters the new season looking to maintain his elite form despite an offseason filled with turbulence.

Heading into 2026, questions linger. Hamlin’s possible lack of focus heading into the new season means he may not be fully locked in. At age 45 too, age naturally becomes part of the conversation. Not to mention, a nagging shoulder injury resurfaced too.

Still, Hamlin showed few signs of real decline. He led the series with six wins and paced the field for more than 1,000 laps — proving he can still compete and win at the highest level.

Hamlin might not top the regular season standings but his elite production makes him a strong bet to reach the Chase once again.

Ryan Blaney – Team Penske

Ryan Blaney once again leads the Ford camp heading into 2026.

In 2025, he paced the Blue Ovals with four wins, 15 top-five finishes, 19 top-10s and 852 laps led, finishing the season with a 14.6 average finish.

Blaney also scored the second-most stage points last season — an asset that will carry major weight again if any driver wants to qualify for the Chase this season.

Blaney’s long-run speed, particularly on intermediates and short tracks, combined with elite tire management, positions him as a championship favorite.

If he maintains that form, he should be a lock for the Chase.

William Byron – Hendrick Motorsports

Defending Regular Season Champion William Byron enters 2026 as another near-lock for the Chase.

In 2025, he did not fall lower than second in the regular season standings at any point during the regular season — greatly underscoring his week-to-week consistency.

Hendrick Motorsports understands how to win in this format and Byron should continue to deliver.

Byron also posted back-to-back seasons with an average start inside the top-10, boasting multiple wins per season every year of the Next Gen era as well.

Byron’s high level of consistency, paired with elite equipment, gives him a very good chance to make to the Chase.

Christopher Bell – Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell opened the 2025 season strong. With the beginning of the schedule largely unchanged, there’s little reason to anticipate a drop-off.

In the Next Gen era, Bell has established himself as one of the best drivers in the field. He poses a threat to win on any track type and works well alongside his championship winning crew chief Adam Stevens, who understands how to navigate this familiar format.

Among his fellow Joe Gibbs Racing teammates, he has delivered the most consistent results since 2022 and rarely endures prolonged slumps. He backed that up with a dominant playoff stretch run last season, recording eight top-10 finishes in the final 10 races — but no Championship 4 berth due to a dearth of wins.

He finished 2025 with a series-best 11.2 average finish and tied for the most top-10s, reinforcing his status as a weekly contender and clear a Chase favorite.

Chase Elliott – Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott gives Hendrick Motorsports another strong presence in the field.

Overall, this format plays to his strengths. Elliott builds seasons on consistency, and that steady production should serve him better in a Chase-style system than the former playoff system.

Additionally, the 2022 regular season title winner finished inside the top five in overall points last year.

Attaining his first multi-win season in three years while tying for the third most top tens with 19, ensure his credentials firmly support his place in the Chase conversation.

Joey Logano – Team Penske

Joey Logano defined NASCAR’s playoff era, winning more championships under the format than anyone else.

He openly supported the system and consistently thrived under its pressure, handling adversity and grinding out results when it mattered most.

Even with the change, Joey still showcases his natural ability to deal with adversity head on which should not differ in 2026.

Regardless of the format shift, his performance and Team Penske’s strength make him a clear lock for the Chase.

Tyler Reddick – 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick navigated an unusual 2025 season, going winless for the first time in the Next Gen era.

Despite not finding victory lane, he kept his car clean and showed how 23XI Racing continues to bring legitimate speed to the track.

The 2024 regular-season champion finished inside the top ten in overall points and posted a 14.5 average finish, tied for sixth-best in the series.

If he reaches victory lane during the regular season, maintains his strength on intermediate tracks, and continues to avoid trouble, Reddick should secure a spot in the 2026 Chase field.

Ross Chastain – Trackhouse Racing

Currently, Ross Chastain serves as Trackhouse Racing’s flagship driver. In the past two seasons, he has settled into a reliable rhythm, seemingly echoing the trend Kurt Busch become known for late in his career, delivering at least one win per season.

Since the first Next Gen season, he has matured significantly. Chastain now races with a defined, confident style that continues to produce consistent results.

He excels at maximizing results, often turning cars without elite speed into strong finishes.

If he and Trackhouse can improve their qualifying speed and start races closer to the front early in the season, the path to the Chase becomes much smoother for the watermelon man.

Chase Briscoe – Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe silenced any doubters in his first season replacing Martin Truex Jr., delivering a breakout 2025 campaign that cemented his place at Joe Gibbs Racing.

He restored the strength of that ride and quickly built chemistry with Coach Gibbs, sponsor Johnny Morris, and the entire organization.

Last season, Briscoe’s speed showed up immediately. He tied for the best average start in the series 9.9, matched the most top-five finishes with 19, and led the field with seven poles.

Starting up front in elite equipment made it easier for Briscoe to control races and stay in contention more often than he ever could at Stewart-Haas.

If he carries his qualifying speed and momentum into 2026, Briscoe should put a third Joe Gibbs Racing car comfortably into the Chase.

Bubba Wallace – 23XI Racing

Bubba Wallace carried the winning banner for 23XI Racing in 2025 after coming through at the Brickyard, delivering himself and the organization with their first crown jewel win.

Since pairing with crew chief Charles Denike, Wallace has unlocked more consistent race winning pace, showed more versatility on road courses, and attained more stage points than ever before.

Unfortunately, those positives came at a price with a Cup Series high nine DNF’s. But those DNF’s should naturally come down in 2026 for Wallace with more reliability and late race composure.

If he pairs his improving consistency with better late-race survival, he should transform from being considered a bubble driver to a solid bet for the Chase.

Chris Buescher – RFK Racing

Chris Buescher fans rejoice! The change from win and in to favoring consistent point hauls arguably benefits the Roush Fenway Keselowski driver the most.

There is nothing fancy about how Buescher races, that race-craft could not align more with the vision RFK Racing embodies as an organization. He simply maximizes the results of every car he runs in.

Since the start of the Next Gen era, Buescher has not finished outside of the top 16 before the start of the playoffs which will give him all the confidence heading into the new season.

Buescher also exhibits a strong skillset on intermediate and short tracks, as well as his budding road course racing ability.

If Chris remains the model of consistency and continues his prowess of maximizing results at any track type, he should become a Chase driver in 2026.

Kyle Busch – Richard Childress Racing

Kyle Busch enters 2026 looking to break his winless streak with newly appointed crew chief Jim Pohlman.

Busch has come out against the format change. He has the right to show his displeasure. The current decline in his results and Richard Childress Racing’s as whole amplifies his woes regardless of the postseason format.

Despite those doubts, There is still hope that they can flip their poor results to potential promise as Busch has shown success in the Chase format before.

The organization and Busch needs to find the top ten more often and truly dial in his unique feel of the next gen car this coming season to bolster success.

If the crew chief change works, then Kyle’s tenacity, consistency, and familiarity with this playoff system will work in his favor.

Alex Bowman – Hendrick Motorsports

Alex Bowman provides enough consistent fights for top tens to show even the fourth Hendrick Motorsports entry belongs in the 2026 Chase.

Bowman proved he passes some key performance indicators necessary to qualify this season. He earned the eleventh most stage points in 2025 while tying for the sixth most top ten finishes.

In a format driven by results, those metrics showcase his ability to succeed in this format than he ever could in the playoff era.

Entering 2026, Hendrick Motorsports swapped and overhauled Bowman’s pit and road crew to further add to his Chase chances.

If he can build on his consistent runs he is known for by adding more top fives, he has a really good shot to point into the Chase.

Brad Keselowski – RFK Racing

Despite his ongoing recovery from his broken leg, Brad Keselowski can get back to where he is most comfortable and point his way into the 2026 Chase.

There may be some time before he builds stamina this season but if he can take the momentum he finished on in 2025 to the current year, he can remain competitive.

As optimistic as we are about Brad, He will need to trim down the amount of DNF’s. He suffered seven of those in 2025 and needs to continue building more top ten finishes as well.

He is a proven champion in the Chase format. While that achievement is firmly in the rearview, if he can bring his fortitude and build on the organizations speed and consistency

Honorable Mentions

The fight for the final spot in the Chase will be fierce. Any one of these drivers can put together a stretch run throughout the regular season worthy of qualification.

Below are a few drivers who are close enough but out of our preseason top 16.

Austin Cindric must find speed beyond the superspeedways. While he remains a threat at drafting tracks, he hasn’t finished inside the top 16 in the standings during the Next Gen era. To reenter the Chase conversation, he needs stronger week-to-week pace across all track types.

Ty Gibbs has not broken through the way many expected, even though he has posted point totals strong enough to qualify in past seasons.

At times, he still pushes the limit to a fault, and his slow start to 2025 highlighted lingering inconsistency which could leak into 2026.

Chris Gabehart’s departure also raises questions for Ty. Gabehart stepped in midseason to steady the No. 54 program, he helped reset their direction and lifted results. Now Gibbs must prove he can maintain speed, adapt to new leadership, and respond to adversity without that stabilizing presence.

Shane van Gisbergen remains a road course ace, but he must elevate his oval performance to contend consistently in this format. He has shown flashes of growth on ovals, yet he still lacks the week-to-week consistancy required to secure a Chase spot.

A highly touted rookie teammate may also siphon points and opportunities, especially on road courses where SVG typically makes his gains. With the schedule continuing to evolve and place heavier emphasis on intermediate and oval tracks, the addition of the new format does him few favors.

Austin Dillon brings a strong foundation, particularly on short tracks and intermediate ovals where he understands how to manage tires and maximize track position.

However, that skill set does not translate across the full schedule. His sub 25th placed final standing order gives little hope of a Chase berth in 2026.

Carson Hocevar has a lot of promise to breakthrough in 2026. Unfortunately, Carson can be reckless to a fault. He could be a driver who finds a win but lacks the consistency necessary to qualify into the Chase.

If Spire Motorsports can take the next step as an organization, he will need to continue garnering stage points and provide less DNF’s to make it in.

Ryan Preece is coming off a win in the Clash and a top 16 final point standings finish in 2025, as he looks to sneak into the 2026 Chase.

Preece is another driver who could win and find himself on the outside looking in. To truly get in, he needs to raise results at track types outside of short tracks. He also needs to earn more stage points and find a higher overall level of consistency

Connor Zilisch – Trackhouse Racing

Finally, we have the sole rookie in the 2026 Cup Series field qualifying for the Chase: Connor Zilisch.

Entering his 2025 O’Reilly Auto Parts Series rookie season, most fans already knew his road-course pedigree. The question centered on his oval racing ability.

In the thick of those doubts, he answered quickly. Zilisch showed a sharp learning curve as he adapted to the new car with ease, and proved he could compete on every track type.

He erased any lingering doubts with a dominant debut season in the O’Reilly Series and now steps into a competitive ride that has reached the playoffs in the Next Gen era before.

Zilisch’s combination of talent and adaptability, gives him the edge over the remaining contenders. He needs to maximize results at the road courses while maintaining top-20 speed elsewhere.

If he meets the hype, and keeps the rookie mistakes to a minimum like he did in a series below, Zilisch should contend for the final spot in the Chase.