Will we see 16 winners this year?
Five races into the NASCAR Cup Series season, we’ve seen five different winners.
In the virtual win-and-you’re-in playoff system, first introduced in 2014 with an expanded 16-driver field, 2024 is the fifth time we have seen five different winners.
The other seasons during the era were 2014, 2016, 2021, and 2022.
In 2022, 17 different drivers scored a victory during the regular season, creating a situation where a Cup Series points-collecting driver would miss the playoffs despite posting a win.
Due to Kurt Busch’s concussion at Pocono, the 2022 Kansas winner missed the playoffs and withdrew his request for a waiver. Yet, that season, all 16 playoff spots were filled by race winners, the first, and only time it has happened.
Given the parody the Next Gen racecar offers, could we see 16 winners again in 2024?
“Yeah, I don’t think that we’ll get there this year,” Phoenix race winner Christopher Bell said to The Racing Experts. “I think you’ll see the normal contenders start being up front more often.”
The 2024 regular season isn’t even a quarter of the way through.
For the time being, 11 spots are occupied by non-race winners.
Winless drivers in 2024 who won races in 2023 include defending series champion Ryan Blaney (who won three races); Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch (who both won three races as well); Two-time winners Tyler Reddick and Ross Chastain; and single-race winners Joey Logano, Michael McDowell, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and Shane Van Gisbergen (SVG was not playoff eligible).
Of the remaining 21 races in the regular season schedule, there are three road/street courses and two drafting tracks, all of which could provide the opportunity for surprise winners.
If we are basing the answer to the question off of historical outcomes, the odds we see 16 winners by Darlington in September — the cutoff race — would be about 10 percent.
On the contrary, in the 16-driver playoff era, the least amount of winners we have seen through 26 races is 10, both happening in 2018 and 2019.
Are we on track for a sixth winner? We’ll know after the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix, scheduled for Sunday , March 24 (3:30 p.m. ET FOX/PRN).
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Dominic Aragon View All
Dominic Aragon is currently the editor-in-chief for The Racing Experts.
From Grants, New Mexico, USA, Aragon started watching NASCAR in 2004 and has been covering the sport since 2009. Aragon is a 2012 graduate of Grants High School and a May 2016 graduate of the University of New Mexico with a B.A. in Mass Communications & Journalism. Aragon has worked in local and national media, as a musician, and an educator. He is co-author of the 2024 book "All of It: Daytona 500 Champion Tells the Rest of the Story" with racer Geoff Bodine.
Aragon, his wife Feliz, and son Christopher currently reside in Grants, New Mexico, USA.
You can reach Dominic at daragon@theracingexperts.net.