Posted August 28, 2025 by Ryan Kemna Cup

Austin Dillon: NASCAR Cup playoff 2025 preview

Even in another down year at Richard Childress Racing, we were reminded that lightning really can strike twice in the same place.

That’s exactly how Austin Dillon’s late-summer Saturday night stunner at Richmond Raceway felt. A second straight season where the No. 3 car found itself in that victory lane, only this time without any controversy attached.

Before his playoff locking win at Richmond, Dillon’s regular season was nothing to brag about. With an average finish in the early 20’s and four top 10’s, playoff hope seemed slim. Seventh-placed runs at Daytona and Texas only reinforced their necessity to win.

Qualifying was didn’t help either. An average starting spot of 19.3 regularly put Dillon on the back foot. Dillon’s performances often mirrored Richard Childress Racing’s struggles with the Next-Gen car.

RCR as a whole lagged behind the competition. Kyle Busch, the team’s flagship driver, missed the playoffs for the second consecutive year. A seemingly glaring sign of their lack of speed, engine strength, and week-to-week consistency

Still, Dillon found flashes of promise in an otherwise mediocre regular season. Fifteen top 20 runs and his recent run of form has the 3 team hitting their stride in August.

Dillon has led 119 laps this regular season, with 107 of those coming at Richmond. Now, this team enters their first playoff appearance since 2022 with a little chip on their shoulders.

Austin Dillon’s Playoff Outlook

The field of competition has further tightened up in the fourth next-gen season. There are better performing non-playoff drivers than Austin Dillon who can mix it upfront each weekend during the fall.

That leaves Dillon with an uphill battle each race to advance in the playoffs. He will need to outperform the same cars that’s been outpacing him all year.

Advancing to the later rounds means finding the same perfect storm that carried them at Richmond. RCR’s inconsistency at intermediate tracks combined with the strength of the competition puts added pressure on him to preform well too.