Bubba Wallace: NASCAR Cup Chase 2026 Preview

For the first time in his NASCAR Cup Series career Bubba Wallace has clinched a postseason birth for a consecutive season.

2026 marks his third appearance in a Cup Series postseason. He will enter the chase as the 14th-seeded driver after clinching the position one stage into the season finale at Daytona.

But his regular season started with a bang and went out with a whimper.

Wallace ran as high as second after six races into the season. Ever since, he has been an a slow simmer down the standings to his current seeding.

Solid Start Simmered Out

After leading 23XI Racing in 2025 Bubba returned for Cup Series action in 2026 looking to do the same. When Tyler Reddick started the season with three consecutive wins he had to take the backseat.

That backseat was relatively comfortable. Wallace started the season with five straight finishes within the top 11 which netted him a top five start to the regular season.

But a 34th-placed finish at Darlington after contact with Denny Hamlin and Erik Jones capped his regular season standing.

From there, it was a slow fall towards the bottom as the Alabama native never stringed more than three races together for the rest of the regular season.

For 14 of the final 18 races he swapped top tens for 20th or lower finishes. In a series-leading seven times in that span, Bubba found himself with a top ten then failing to get within at least ten spot of it.

Meanwhile, his regular season standings continued to shake with his rockiness to the point where Wallace found himself still having to lock into the Chase heading into the season finale at Daytona.

While he only needed a single point to do so, it was a hard pill to swallow for a team that once held a top five seed at one point.

2026 Chase Outlook

The 14th seed is a tough spot to start the Chase in. While a championship is technically still within reach, anything outside of the top eight seeds have an extreme chance to take it home.

Wallace will see two tracks that has been good to him previously in the fall. Kansas and Talladega provide a fun opportunity for the 23XI driver to collect consecutive winning seasons for the first time in three seasons.

His regular season averages have shown him to be better than his current seed too.

He currently has the tenth best average running position in the series and total driver rating.

If he can finish where he runs and string together top ten weekends, a top ten finish in the standings can happen.

Ceiling: Tenth Floor: 16th

Wallace’s Season Overview

2026 Stats

• 0 wins
  • 2 runners-up finishes
• 0 poles
  • 1 front-row start
• 2 stage wins
• 4 top-five finishes, 11 top-ten finishes with 3 DNF’s
• 18.8 avg start, 16.6 avg finish
  • Avg. Running Position of 14.977 (10th-best)
• 214 laps led (11th-best)
  • Led season-high 46 laps in his eight place finish in the spring EchoPark Speedway (Atlanta) race
• Driver Rating of 82.4 (10th-best)

Strengths

• Outpaces his averages
• Top Toyota speed
• Running position

Weaknesses

• qualifying speed
• Closing composure
• Postseason experience