Data: A good starting spot doesn’t guarantee a Daytona 500 win

Historically, you want a good starting spot if you’re going to have a chance at winning the Daytona 500 – but recent history bucks that trend.

The average starting position of the last 25 Daytona 500 winners is 13.6 vs. 6.8 in the previous 25 winners. Excluding the four outliers, it is 9.7 vs. 3.8.

A front-row starter has won 16 of the 65 Daytona 500s – but never since Dale Jarrett in 2000.

Since Jarrett’s win, a top-5 starter has only won the 500 five times in 23 editions – compared to 24 times in the 42 editions before.

What caused this shift?

After the maligned 2000 Daytona 500, NASCAR overhauled the aero package, producing massive packs of cars. That led to winners like Michael Waltrip and Ward Burton who, in both 2001 and 2002, respectively, started 19th and won (the previous two winners both started from the pole).

With exceptions in 2007, ’09 and ’11, winners trended toward the front. A lower-downforce package accelerated that as only two winners from 2012-19 started outside the top-10 – and none worse than 14th.

Again, poorly received races led to big changes. Denny Hamlin won 2020 from 21st, then Michael McDowell won in 2021 from 17th.

The Gen 7 has been mixed. Austin Cindric won from fifth while Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won from 31st in the first two years.

What will see this year?

The average starting position for the winner of a traditional superspeedway (Daytona, Talladega) race in the Gen 7 era winner there is 15.6. Combined with the aforementioned data, a winner will likely come from 9th-16th:

Carson Hocevar, John Hunter Nemechek, Erik Jones, Harrison Burton, Daniel Suarez, Zane Smith, Ty Gibbs, Brad Keselowski

Keselowski is one of the odds-on favorites, at around +1200. He is one of three drivers in that list of eight who have actually won a Cup race.

Meanwhile, the others are trying to join this list of drivers who have earned their first win in the 500:

Austin Cindric (2022), Michael McDowell (2021), Trevor Bayne (2011), Michael Waltrip (2001), Sterling Marlin (1994), Derrike Cope (1990), Pete Hamilton (1970), Mario Andretti (1967), Tiny Lund (1963)

How will the race play out?

With how good the Toyota drivers were in the Duel races, it is hard to bet against any of them.

Among the names in the sweet spot, Jones and Gibbs who are each looking for redemption. Jones to prove Legacy Motor Club is a player with Toyota and Gibbs to cross off that first win and avenge losing the Clash.

Toyota teammates Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell, who won the Duel races, and Denny Hamlin, the winningest active driver in the 500, are stalwarts starting up front. If if turns into a track position race, it’s theirs to lose.

All questions will be answered when the green flag drops for the 66th Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway. Tune in Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET on FS1, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.