Kyle Larson Chasing Rare NASCAR Championship feat not seen Since 2003

This Sunday at Martinsville, Kyle Larson has a chance to etch his name into NASCAR history by becoming the first driver since 2003 to clinch the Cup Series championship before the season finale.

Entering the Chase, many across the industry expected the top five seeds to emerge as the primary championship contenders.

With just two races remaining, however, three of the current top five entered the Chase seeded outside that group. This includes points leader Kyle Larson, who began the postseason as the seventh seed, as well as Joey Logano as the ninth seed, and Christopher Bell as the sixth seed.

What many in the garage underestimated was how heavily the format rewarded victories, creating significant swings in the reset Chase standings.

It took Larson just three races to erase his 55-point deficit to Denny Hamlin and take over the championship lead following Bristol. During that stretch, Larson secured one victory and recorded a 2.67 average finish, while Hamlin went winless with a 9.3 average finish.

Larson carried that momentum into the next five races, adding two more victories and posting a 10.6 average finish. Through the first seven Chase races, the driver of the No. 5 has established himself as the statistical leader across nearly every major category.

Larson leads all Chase drivers in points (396), wins (three), top-five finishes (six), top-10 finishes (seven) and laps led (579). He also boasts the series’ best average finish at 6.5.

The numbers paint a convincing picture of Larson’s dominance, but the job is not finished. He and the No. 5 team still have two races to close out their championship run, with the opportunity to secure the title at either Martinsville or Homestead-Miami.

Clinching Scenarios

Kyle Larson can become the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series champion at Martinsville.

Regardless of how the other contenders perform, 59 points is the magic number in the Xfinity 500. Doing so would put him alongside Matt Kenseth and other drivers who have clinched a championship before the season finale.

Even if Larson falls short of that mark, several paths remain for him to secure the title this weekend.

The clinching gap is a 77-point advantage over the six other championship-eligible drivers.

To clinch at Martinsville, Larson must outscore Denny Hamlin by at least four points and Christopher Bell by three.

He can also afford to lose no more than two points to Chase Briscoe, 33 to Joey Logano, 37 to Ryan Blaney and 49 to Tyler Reddick.

Based on the current projections by NASCAR, Larson enters Martinsville with a 92.3% chance of winning the championship and a 36.8% chance of clinching it this weekend.

In the scenarios where he fails to secure the title at Martinsville, he averages just 16.5 points per race over the final two events. He has recorded six two-race stretches at or below that scoring pace this season.

Even a DNF at Martinsville would not necessarily derail his championship pursuit. Larson would still have an 81.4% chance of claiming the title, according to the projections.

Larson’s Thoughts

Ahead of the weekend’s on-track sessions, Larson was asked about the possibility of clinching his second consecutive championship.

“Just continuing what we have been doing here in the Chase and nothing new. I’m not anticipating anything. Just want to have a good day and continue for next week.”

When asked about his 73-point advantage, Larson acknowledged the temptation to look ahead while emphasizing the team’s ability to remain focused.

“It is tough not to look at that and see it and see what could be done this weekend. What our team does really well is staying focused on not being too relaxed and not putting too much pressure on ourselves either.”

The team’s approach heading into Martinsville was summed up in one simple motto from the Chase leader, “Stay true to who we are.”

Regardless of whether Larson clinches this weekend, another championship would put him in even rarer company. A second consecutive title would make him the first driver since Jimmie Johnson’s historic five-year run from 2006 to 2010 to win back-to-back Cup Series championships.

Like most of his Chase interviews, Larson was quick to shift the focus away from his own potential achievement and toward the strength of his Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 team.

“If we happen to go back-to-back with two different formats, it shows the resilience of the team,” he concluded.

Drivers to Win Consecutive NASCAR Cup Series Championships

• Jimmie Johnson: 2006-10
• Jeff Gordon: 1997-98
• Dale Earnhardt: 1993-94, 1990-91, 1986-87
• Darrell Waltrip: 1981-82
• Cale Yarborough: 1976-78
• Richard Petty: 1974-75, 1971-72
• David Pearson: 1968-69
• Joe Weatherly: 1962-63
• Lee Petty: 1958-59

All Modern-Era Pre-Finale Championship Clinchers

There have been no examples of this feat Kyle Larson is pursuing that has came from the Chase format.

However, the Latford system provided a handful of drivers who did clinch the title before the final race of the season.

Here is a list of all the drivers who has since 1975.

• Matt Kenseth: 2003
• Bobby Labonte: 2000
• Dale Jarrett: 1999
• Jeff Gordon: 1998,2001
• Dale Earnhardt: 1986,1987,1994
• Cale Yarborough: 1976,1977,1978
• Richard Petty: 1975

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