NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds: Homestead-Miami 2026

Here are the updated NASCAR Cup Series Chase standings and odds for the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Last weekend, Martinsville Speedway once again played a familiar role in the NASCAR Cup Series postseason.

Although its significance was not quite as high as it was during the traditional playoff format, the paperclip still separated the legitimate championship contenders from those whose title hopes had run out of road.

Seven drivers entered Martinsville with a mathematical chance to win the 2026 Chase. Only three left with their title hopes intact.

Kyle Larson arrived with a commanding 73-point advantage over Denny Hamlin and a 74-point lead over Christopher Bell.

While Larson fell short of becoming the first driver since Matt Kenseth in 2003 to clinch the championship before the season finale, his position heading into the final race remains extremely favorable. His championship odds reflect just how much control he has over his title destiny.

Clinching Scenarios

Larson needs just nine points at the season finale to secure his third Cup Series championship, regardless of how the other contenders perform.

He can reach that threshold by collecting eight stage points, even if he finishes last as he would earn one additional point for the position. Alternatively, if he fails to score any stage points, a 28th-place finish would be enough to clinch the title.

However, the championship is not yet mathematically guaranteed for the Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 team. Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin remain eligible to challenge for the title, meaning there is still room for a dramatic finish.

For either driver to overtake Larson, the championship leader would need to suffer a disastrous afternoon while they put together a perfect performance.

Both Bell and Hamlin need to score the maximum 76 points available at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Bell would also need Larson to finish 29th or worse, while Hamlin needs the No. 5 to finish 32nd or worse.

Larson remains firmly in control, but until the checkered flag falls, the championship is still up for grabs.

Cup Series Chase Standings

Championship Odds Before Season Finale 400

Below are the opening odds* for all three title eligible Chase drivers as of Monday, November 2, per Fanatics Sportsbook.

The numbers in front of the driver’s name indicates points position at the start of the Chase.

*DISCLAIMER: This article is solely for news and entertainment purposes. This content is not financial or betting advice.

• (7) Kyle Larson: -10000
• (1) Denny Hamlin, (6) Christopher Bell: +3300

Eliminated from championship contention: (5) Chase Briscoe, (2) Ryan Blaney, (9) Joey Logano, (3) Tyler Reddick, (15) Austin Cindric, (4) Ty Gibbs, (12) Carson Hocevar, (8) Chase Elliott, (13) William Byron, (14) Bubba Wallace, (11) Daniel Suarez, (10) Chris Buescher, and (16) Ryan Preece.

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