NASCAR Cup Series’ In-Season Tournament Preview: Sonoma Round 1
The NASCAR Cup Series returns the In-Season Tournament and to TNT for their first of a five race slate with the Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway.
32 drivers will take the track with the opportunity to win $1 Million dollars by the time they reach Indianapolis Motor Speedway. But first, they will battle in wine country where 16 drivers will be eliminated from contention.
We put our racing experts to the task of selecting who could make it to the next round. Let’s have a look at the matchups below.
1. Reddick vs 32. Bowman
Alex Bowman barely snuck into the 32nd spot in the regular season and now has to go up against the hottest driver in the series right now in Tyler Reddick.
We are not going to go with the upset here and take Reddick to advance. His road course skillset combined with his great season thus far makes him an easy pick this week.
2. Hamlin vs 31. Ty Dillon
It’s a rematch! Denny Hamlin will face the familiar first round foe in Ty Dillon for the second straight season. Last year, Dillon defeated Hamlin in true David vs Goliath fashion but can he win again?
Our experts are not expecting a repeat. Hamlin has arguably been in the best form of his career as of late. This season, he has outperformed Dillon on every road course which should further bolster his case.
If Hamlin does advance, he will look forward to the rest of the more favorable tournament schedule.
3. Blaney vs 30. Berry
The third matchup is a pseudo Team Penske matchup. The laying duck that is Josh Berry has to try and uproot Ryan Blaney at Sonoma this weekend.
It will be unlikely that he does. The team shop favors who is ahead in the regular season standings and Berry is fourth in the team order while Blaney ranks first.
Blaney has shown great consistency at road courses this year. He has two top tens and an average finish of tenth and if he can continue that trend, Ryan Blaney should move on to the next round.
4. Elliott vs 29. Gragson
Noah Gragson’s matchup with Chase Elliott comes at a time where he could strike. While the driver of the No. 4 has not produced to the same winning level as Elliott has shown on the road, their recent results have been close.
Besides his DNF after his run in with Kevin Magnussen last week at Naval Base Coronado, Gragson has finished both prior road course events in 22nd. While his 22nd-placed finish out ran Elliott at Watkins Glen, Elliott still holds the overall performance advantage.
If Elliott stays out of trouble, he should see himself go through to the next round without too much hassle.
5. Gibbs vs 28. A. Dillon
The defending, and only, winner of NASCAR’s In-Season Challenge champion is Ty Gibbs. His breakthrough season won’t slow down with a first round matchup against Austin Dillon.
Dillon and Richard Childress Racing have yet to find speed on the roads this season and their glad Sonoma is the final one of the season. Meanwhile, Gibbs’ road course prowess makes him a contender not only for the matchup but for the win. As the favorite, Gibbs should win this matchup.
6. Larson vs 27. Herbst
This matchup has a little bit more uncertainty that it did prior to Naval Base Coronado. Riley Herbst finished eighth at the base and had his most complete Cup Series weekend of his career.
Even so, that should not slow down Kyle Larson. Larson is a former winner at Sonoma in the current generation of car. He also, is fresh off a third place run at the base as well.
If he can continue his top five speed and avoid a disappointing run similar to how he preformed at Watkins Glen, Larson should take this matchup.
7. Buescher vs 26. Nemechek
Chris Buescher faces John Hunter Nemechek off the back of Legacy Motor Club’s recent spike in performance. Surprisingly, Nemechek holds the results advantage, two to one, at road courses this season against Buescher.
Their surge might not be enough against Buescher. His 7.7 average finish at Sonoma combined with his good run at Naval Base Coronado provides the No. 17 with better momentum than Nemechek heading into the matchup.
8. Suarez vs 25. Gilliland
Daniel Suarez will go up against Todd Gilliland at Sonoma. Suarez finds himself in the midst of a potential career season with his new team.
Todd Gilliland qualified near the front last weekend at the base but his results don’t hold up against Suarez. He also outperformed Suarez at COTA but that might not be enough to win this weekend.
If Suarez can continue his great season he should walk away from Sonoma with the matchup victory.
9. Hocevar vs 24. Smith
The young bucks of Carson Hocevar and Zane Smith feature in this first round matchup. This is the first truly difficult matchup to predict in the bracket.
Hocevar qualified second last weekend at Naval Base Coronado and even led late into the running before his spin sent him to the rear.
Zane Smith has been as impressive recently as well. He finished fourth at the base and led some laps too. His recent form will give him plenty of momentum heading into Sonoma.
But, when you’re in the hurricane’s path you better watch out. If Carson can keep himself out of trouble, he should be able to advance in the tournament.
10. Bell vs 23. Chastain
Despite his underdog status, Ross Chastain comes into the week as the favorite to win his matchup. This favoritism stems from Bell’s current broken wrist which he sustained during his hard crash at Michigan only three weeks ago.
Last week, Bell had Brent Crews replace him during the middle of the first stage at Naval Base Coronado. Joe Gibbs Racing will look to protect their driver once more at Sonoma.
Therefore, Chastain essentially earns himself a first round bye and should easily advance to the next round.
11. Byron vs 22. Stenhouse Jr.
William Byron enters the final road course of the season off the back of two consecutive DNF’s on them.
His mission is simple, finish the race. His foe Ricky Stenhouse Jr has not placed himself inside the top 25 on any road course so far this season and will have an uphill battle in order to defeat Byron.
Byron should easily advance, but if his recent DNF trend on the track type continues, Stenhouse Jr. could provide a massive upset.
12. Briscoe vs 21. Allmendinger
Chase Briscoe and AJ Allmendinger looks to be the most difficult matchup to predict of the entire first round.
On the traditional circuit road courses, Briscoe shows out. He placed fourth at Watkins Glen earlier in the season and enters Sonoma after his dominating second place finish at the track a season ago.
Meanwhile, AJ Allmendinger can never be underestimated on a road course. He enters wine country with top tens in every road course this season and will be very competitive once again.
We are giving the edge to Chase Briscoe for two reasons. His equipment is far superior to Allmendinger’s and his momentum at Sonoma from last season could be the edge needed to advance.
13. Wallace vs 20. McDowell
We have our first true upset with Michael McDowell taking the win over Bubba Wallace.
It will not be easy at all. Wholistically, McDowell might be the better road racer but Wallace enters off the back of his second-place at the base.
While his momentum is higher than it has been in a few weeks, Michael McDowell has the results to back himself up. He has finished inside the top five twice on road courses this season and inside the top ten at them all.
His road racing pedigree should see McDowell advance. But don’t count out the speedy Wallace in this matchup.
14. van Gisbergen vs 19. Preece
Someone had to matchup against Shane van Gisbergen and that unfortunate driver will be Ryan Preece.
The stats are obviously not on Preece’s side at Sonoma or any road course against Shane. Upon the release of the bracket, he already looked defeated.
If van Gisbergen can avoid the same fate he had last week at the Naval Base Coronado, this should be an easy matchup for him to win.
15. Jones vs 18. Logano
This matchup could go either way. Erik Jones started in the rear last week and survived to finish 20th. He comes into Sonoma with incredible momentum, but his road course results have not been as good as when Logano runs a complete race.
If Joey can continue his stellar 11.0 average finish at Sonoma, compared to Jones’ 27.7, and stay out of trouble he should walk away with the slight upset.
16. Cindric vs 17. Keselowski
Austin Cindric and Brad Keselowski enter as our final matchup to predict in the first round.
Keselowski has placed in the 30’s in the previous two road course events. His current recovery from his broken femur will continue impact his already subpar next-gen road course performances again at Sonoma.
Austin Cindric could win this matchup if he can stay out of trouble. Besides the first season of the next-gen car, Brad has finished higher at Sonoma. But, Cindric is healthier and road course skills suit the current car better than Keselowski and should edge him out.
Unfortunately the bracket layout was not kind to them. The winner would more than likely face Tyler Reddick in a tough second round matchup at Chicagoland.
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Ryan Kemna View All
Ryan Kemna is a photojournalist for The Racing Experts, LLC. He has been with TRE since 2025.
Currently residing in the Minneapolis, MN, area, Kemna brings his passion for motorsports, photography, and a good story to readers.