NASCAR Cup Series playoffs: Championship Four predictions

Last but not least, here are our Championship Four predictions.

First, a quick look at how the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are seeded going into Sunday’s opener.

Kyle Larson

Larson has had arguably the best raw speed of any driver in the field this entire season. The problem lies with inconsistent finishes and various issues throughout the season.

However, how many times have we seen Hendrick clean up their act in the playoffs after an underwhelming end to the regular season? Seven, at least. The organization is masterful at turning up the heat when it matters most.

Larson can do it and win just about anywhere.

Any of the tracks in the playoffs bodes well for Larson. He has a win at nine of the ten playoff tracks in his short, 98-race tenure (to-date) with Hendrick Motorsports.

The one minefield may be the second round. Talladega, and superspeedways in general, have always been Larson’s kryptonite. Larson also hasn’t led a lap on a road course this year and Texas is a big unknown that could bring chaos.

Should he survive the second round, the trio of Las Vegas, Homestead-Miami and Martinsville is a diamond field and a feast for a second championship ring he could earn at Phoenix.

We believe he’ll survive and hunt for another crown jewel there.

Martin Truex Jr.

The revitalization of the 2017 NASCAR Cup Series champion has been one of the top storylines of 2023. Truex broke a long winless streak at Dover in May, then earned two more wins and became the driver of the summer.

Now, he leads the series in average finish (11.4), top-10s (15), and stage wins (six). He is also tied with William Byron for playoff points (36).

The biggest success was winning the regular-season champion. To his credit, too, the regular-season champion has missed the Championship Four only once (2020 – Kevin Harvick).

If Truex continues his generally good performance everywhere and avoids a collapse like Harvick had in ’20, he’ll be in good shape.

William Byron

Just as the regular-season champion has missed the Championship Four only once, the No. 1 seed has only missed that once (again, Harvick in 2020).

Hendrick Motorsports are masters of playoff runs. With a hungry driver like Byron who has the overall speed and the poise to capitalize on races where he isn’t the best driver, this team should walk to the Championship Four.

Still, it will take avoiding mistakes in that final round. The final round consists of Las Vegas and Martinsville, which are tracks Byron has won at before.

Again, barring a collapse like Harvick had in the final round or Kyle Larson had in 2017, Byron should be okay – especially if he’s one of the winners in the final round.

If he makes it to the Championship Four, Byron is the most recent winner at Phoenix. Should he go two-in-a-row in 2023, he’d be the second-youngest Cup Series champion in the 21st century, behind only Chase Elliott in 2020.

Denny Hamlin

One of these years has to be Denny’s year, right? 2010, 2012, 2014, 2019, 2020, 2021 are all years where Denny was in the championship conversation at one point or another…but still he doesn’t have a championship.

We at TRE think this is the year.

The storyline of Hamlin getting the championship at the same place where NASCAR docked him 25 points for an arguably rivalry-ending incident with Ross Chastain would be interesting – but storylines are merely talk.

What we see is Toyota has been on the upswing in the last 10 races. With it, Hamlin has earned the most points (374) of any driver in the series, ahead of teammate Martin Truex Jr (359).

It doesn’t matter what track it is, either. Hamlin has second-place finishes at Watkins Glen and Richmond plus top-5s at Nashville and Michigan and a seventh-place finish at Loudon. Not to mention, a noted superspeedway record.

Hamlin also has two poles at road courses this year. He also is one of the best drivers at Martinsville and is good enough at the intermediate tracks that fill out the final round.

At Phoenix, Hamlin is good there too. However, he needs to capitalize on where he’s fallen short in the past.

If there is anyone who has an overflowing notebook of records, though, it’s Hamlin and crew chief Chris Gabehart. They could claim their first Cup this year.