NASCAR history gives Kyle Larson a 70% chance at the 2026 title 

Kyle Larson has a 70 percent chance of winning the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship, based on one Chase metric.

Data showed from 2004 to 2013, the Chase era of NASCAR’s post-season, the driver leading the point standings with four races left in the year went on to win the championship seven out of 10 times, or 70 percent.

From 2004 to 2013, during NASCAR’s original Chase era, the driver leading the standings with four races remaining went on to win the championship in seven of 10 seasons; a 70 percent success rate.

The remaining 30 percent where the Chase leader with four races left failed to convert it to a championship were filled with Cup Series legends.

The three occasions where the points leader with four races left did not win the championship were 2006 (Matt Kenseth), 2007 (Jeff Gordon), and Carl Edwards (2011).

The first instance was in the Chase’s third season in 2006 where Matt Kenseth failed to hold off Jimmie Johnson.

The eventual champion Johnson, was third in the standings, 41 points behind the lead. Under the Latford points system, used from 1975 to 2010, Johnson was about 36 percent behind a full race’s worth of points behind leader Kenseth.

It happened for the second time only a season later in the 2007 Chase to Jeff Gordon with his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jimmie Johnson usurping once again.

Johnson hit the four races remaining mark with the largest point deficit among the three instances where a driver outside of the lead won the title. His 77-point deficit from second place was equivalent to approx. 48 percent of a full race to Gordon.

Finally, in 2011 Carl Edwards became the most recent driver who failed to convert his lead to a championship in the Chase.

Unlike the previous two instances, Jimmie Johnson did not catch fire late for this title. It was Tony Stewart who made his dazzling run to his final championship from the farthest back of them all from fourth, but only 19 points behind Edwards.

The new points system introduced in 2011 was more similar to the one used today; one point per position but with no stage points. Stewart’s deficit was about 40 percent behind a full race to Edward’s lead.

2014 to 2025 numbers are not included because of the numerous points resets across the rounds of the NASCAR Playoffs.

Larson in 2026

To capture his first Cup Series title, Denny Hamlin will need to make history of his own.

This year, Larson holds a 49-point advantage over Denny Hamlin. The gap is equivalent to roughly 65% of the maximum 75-point swing available in a single race.

That gap is larger than the deficits overcome in the three previous four-race comebacks outlined above, meaning Hamlin faces a steeper climb than those championship challengers did.

Larson, the two-time champion, has odds of -240, or about a 70.6 percent implied odds of winning his third NASCAR Cup Series title in 2026, according to the Caesar’s Sportsbook entering race 33 of 36 at Phoenix Raceway.

Larson has won at three of the remaining four tracks (no victory at Talladega to date), while Hamlin has won at each of the four remaining tracks.

At Homestead-Miami, the season finale, Larson will enter as the defending race winner. But first, he heads to the track where he captured his two championships at to continue his championship defense.

The Freeway Insurance 500 at Phoenix is scheduled for Sunday, Oct. 18.

List of drivers who led with 4 races left in Chase

YEAR	DRIVER	PTS LEAD	FINAL RANK
2004	Kurt Busch	96	1st
2005	Tony Stewart	15	1st
2006	Matt Kenseth	36	2nd
2007	Jeff Gordon	53	2nd
2008	Jimmie Johnson	149	1st
2009	Jimmie Johnson	118	1st
2010	Jimmie Johnson	6	1st
2011	Carl Edwards	14	2nd
2012	Brad Keselowski	7	1st
2013	Jimmie Johnson	4	1st
2026	Kyle Larson	49	?