NASCAR playoff clinch scenarios mount in Indy
The 2024 NASCAR regular season is winding down with five races left for the Cup Series, seven left for the Xfinity Series and two left for the Craftsman Truck Series.
The NASCAR Cup Series and the NASCAR Xfinity Series head to the 2.5-mile Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval this weekend. Meanwhile, the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series will head to the 0.686-mile Lucas Oil Indianapolis Raceway Park.
It’s a big weekend not just because it’s all happening in and around one of the biggest meccas of speed but because some drivers could potentially clinch a playoff spot.
NASCAR Cup Series
The scenario is pretty simple. If there isn’t a new winner, or a playoff-ineligible driver wins, all 12 playoff-eligible winners so far in 2024 will lock themselves into the postseason. With 12 winners and hypothetically four spots to fill in the last four races, that means none of those winners could get bumped out.
If there is a new winner, we will have to wait to lock in some of the single-race winners. Should we get five new playoff-eligible winners in the next five weeks, including at Indianapolis, that will mean the winner lowest in points wouldn’t make the playoffs.
As of now, that battle would come down to Daniel Suarez and Austin Cindric. Suarez is 17th in points with 431 points, 23 more than Cindric in 19th. They are the two lowest-ranked winners in the points standings.
Of course, if there is a repeat or playoff-ineligible winner at Indianapolis, that is all moot and they will both get into the playoffs.
NASCAR Xfinity Series
The Xfinity Series has seen seven winners so far this season. There has never been a season where more than eight drivers have been able to win and get into the playoffs.
Still, with seven races left and five spots remaining, there are still no plausible clinch scenarios going into this weekend. However, three-time winner Shane van Gisbergen and two-time winners Austin Hill, Chandler Smith and Sam Mayer can breathe easy knowing they will race in the playoffs.
Cole Custer, Justin Allgaier and Jesse Love can all lock themselves into the playoffs with another win.
NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series
This is where it gets interesting. While fourth-place Ty Majeski is 124 points above the cutline and basically just has to start the race Friday at LOIRP, sixth through 14th in points are all within a race worth of points of the cutline:
6. Tyler Ankrum: 414 points (+49 points to the cutline)
7. Grant Enfinger: 411 (+46)
8. Taylor Gray: 404 (+39)
9. Ben Rhodes: 383 (+18)
10. Daniel Dye: 366 (+1)
11. Tanner Gray: 365 (-1 point to the cutline)
12. Stewart Friesen: 362 (-4)
13. Matt Crafton: 319 (-47)
14. Chase Purdy: 314 (-52)
Jake Garcia (-73), Dean Thompson (-89), Layne Riggs (-95), Bayley Currey (-116), Ty Dillon (-117) and Bret Holmes (-119) are all still mathematically eligible for a playoff spot – but realistically, they have to win.
Riggs stands out as the biggest threat of the bunch. He finished third last year and is a short-track standout. If he is to earn his first win of his career, now is the time.
On the other end, if Grant Enfinger and Taylor Gray run well enough at LOIRP, they could lock into the playoffs. They just needs to finish the race more than 60 points ahead of the 10th-place driver in the playoff standings.
MORE ON INDY: NASCAR at Indianapolis 2024: Odds, TV times, entry lists and more info
The regular season ends after the Olympic break at Richmond Raceway with the August 10 Clean Harbors 250 (7:30 p.m. ET; FS1, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
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Jonathan Fjeld View All
Jonathan Fjeld is the co-owner of the The Racing Experts, LLC. He has been with TRE since 2010.
A Twin Valley, MN, native, Fjeld became a motorsports fan at just three years old (first race was the 2002 Pennsylvania 500). He worked as a contributor and writer for TRE from 2010-18. Since then, he has stepped up and covered 24 NASCAR race weekends and taken on a larger role with TRE. He became the co-owner and managing editor in 2023 and has guided the site to massive growth in that time.
Fjeld has covered a wide array of stories and moments over the years, including Kevin Harvick's final Cup Series season, the first NASCAR national series disqualification in over 50 years, Shane van Gisbergen's stunning win in Chicago and the first Cup Series race at Road America in 66 years – as well as up-and-coming drivers' stories and stories from inside the sport, like the tech it takes for Hendrick Motorsports to remain a top-tier team.
Currently, he resides in Albuquerque, N.M., where he works for KOB 4, an NBC station. He works as a digital producer and does on-air reports. He loves spending time with friends and family, playing and listening to music, exploring new places, being outdoors, reading books and writing among other activities. You can email him at fjeldjonathan@gmail.com