Which NASCAR Cup Series playoff drivers are in good shape after Atlanta?
HAMPTON, Ga. — Most of the NASCAR Cup Series playoff field escaped Atlanta Motor Speedway with a solid finish and a smile, but some drivers didn’t fare as well.
Here’s the outlook for the entire NASCAR Cup Series playoff field after Atlanta.
Stat to note while you read:
Since the start of the playoff era in 2017, the last driver above the cutline ended the Round of 16 with an average of 2,081 points. In the Gen 7 era, dating back to 2022, that driver ended the round with an average of 2,072 points.
Good: Team Penske trio
If it wasn’t going to be Joey Logano in victory lane, it was going to be either Ryan Blaney or Austin Cindric.
Blaney and Cindric went 1-2 in stage one. Then, in stage two, they reversed that order. But the final stage wasn’t as easy for either of them, for different reasons.
A slow stop knocked Cindric out of the Top-10 in the final stage after leading 92 of the first 162 laps (a career and race-best). Still, he rallied to finish 10th.
Blaney’s setbacks could’ve been much worse. On lap 201, his No. 12 Dent Wizard Ford sustained heavy left-side damage in a crash involving Chris Buescher and Martin Truex Jr.
In the spirit of their sponsor, Blaney’s team made repairs that looked like they were trying to steal Ross Chastain’s number.
Still, Blaney rallied back to have Chastain’s number in overtime. Chastain stalled trying to help teammate Daniel Suarez win while Blaney pushed teammate Joey Logano ahead of Suarez.
Blaney finished third. Now +45 points to the cutline (2071 points), he is in the best shape to make the Round of 12.
At +27 (2053),and a season average of around 19.5 points per race, Cindric looks good too.
Good: Chevrolet
Every Chevrolet playoff entry is above the cutline after Atlanta. Surprisingly, their silver bullet is at the bottom of the pile.
On lap 55, Kyle Larson snapped loose and destroying the outside wall. Larson earned just one point for finishing 37th but is still 10th in points, +15 points to the cutline (2041 points). Watkins Glen and Bristol play to his strengths, so Atlanta is essentially a mulligan.
Teammates and fellow championship favorites William Byron and Chase Elliott also have little to worry about. They’re fifth and eighth in points at +33 and +24 points to the cutline, respectively. Byron placed eighth and fifth in the stages and finished ninth, while Elliott placed seventh and eighth and finished eighth.
The big winner was Alex Bowman.
Bowman ended a 12-race skid with five finishes of 27th or worse and only three Top-10 finishes. Not only that but he restored external confidence in the team, rumors be damned.
On Sunday, Bowman earned the second-most points (48) of anyone. He also earned the second-highest driver rating (115.9) – his best since Kansas Speedway in September 2022.
That race marked the awakening of Bowman and his No. 48 team. While a concussion quickly silenced that back then, Bowman is back on form two years later.
Daniel Suarez was one spot shy of being the first driver to sweep the season on the new Atlanta configuration. Had Trackhouse Racing teammate Ross Chastain avoided overtime hiccups, he could’ve easily won.
Still, a second-place finish with seven stage points – 42 points in all – boosts Suarez is +22 points to the cutline (2048) while Bowman is +27 (2053).
Using the historical averages, Bowman will need to average around 14 points per race. Suarez will need to average around 17.
Bad: Toyota, saved by the Bell (and Reddick)
While Toyota drivers Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick felt good leaving Atlanta after finishing fourth and sixth, now +40 and +33 points to the cutline, respectively, the rest of their manufacturer cohort can’t say the same.
Ty Gibbs led before a caution fell on lap 256 for Noah Gragson wrecking. When the race went green in overtime, Gibbs missed a block and fell to 17th.
Hamlin spent one of the 266 laps in the Top-15, hanging in the back all day, hoping to avoid all the wrecks.
Ironically, it led to him getting in a wreck on the final lap.
MORE: Wreck avoidance race ends with last-lap wreck for Hamlin at Atlanta
Truex was all over. At the end of stage one, he placed ninth. Then, during the stage break, officials caught him speeding on pit road. He rallied back but then a wreck on lap 206 knocked him out for good in 35th.
Gibbs is +1 point to the cutline (2027 points), just behind Hamlin who is +2 (2028). Truex is in trouble, at -19 (2008).
Truex has also been very good at Watkins Glen. In the last seven races there, he has six Top-10 finishes, including the last non-Hendrick Motorsports win there, back in 2017.
In the stage era, he has averaged an impressive 42 points per race. Still, even with replicating that this year, that would put him at 2050 points and in a position to where he would need to score big points at Bristol. In the spring, he earned 44 points but that is double what his average points total is there in the stage era (22 points per race). Truex has been lacking momentum and is in a deficit so it’s highly likely his final quest for a title may be done after this round.
It also doesn’t help Truex that Watkins Glen and Bristol have been stellar for Ty Gibbs and Denny Hamlin. In the last two Bristol races, they have combined to lead 544 of the 1,000 laps run in those races.
At Watkins Glen, Hamlin has five Top-5 finishes in the last seven races there. Meanwhile, Gibbs earned a Top-5 there last year and a pair of third-place finishes at road courses earlier this year.
Hamlin hasn’t had the best momentum lately. However, he has showed up at favorites like Richmond and Darlington, which instills confidence in his chances. Gibbs also proved at Atlanta he is ready to take the title fight to the contenders and he will only get stronger at tracks he is especially good at.
Bad: The Fallen Fords
The 15 minutes of playoff fame may have run out for Chase Briscoe and Harrison Burton.
Briscoe crashed out with Kyle Larson in turn one on lap 56. Like Larson, he earned just one point on the day.
Now -21 points to the cutline (2006 points) after Atlanta, there is a swathe of drivers above Briscoe in the standings who have better historical performance or at one or both of the remaining tracks in the round.
On the flipside, drivers like Daniel Suarez (+41 points to Briscoe), Austin Cindric (+47), Alex Bowman (+47) can use their advantage on Briscoe to help patch any holes in their records at Watkins Glen and Bristol.
Harrison Burton is in a similar situation. Burton started 12th, spent nearly half of the race inside the Top-15 and was even above the cutline before finishing 31st after a wreck on the final lap.
Now 13th in points, -16 to the cutline (2011 points), he will need to average around 36 points per race to have a fighting shot at advancing. That is a tough ask of a driver who has earned that many points in very few races.
While Brad Keselowski is looking better than Burton, he will have to be ironclad. Keselowski is now -1 point to the cutline (2026 points) after failing to earn stage points and finishing 19th with an ill-handling racecar at Atlanta.
Keselowski has a great record at Bristol, averaging 39 points per race in the Gen 7 era. At Watkins Glen, he has averaged around 20 points per race.
Using the historical data, Keselowski could easily make the next round. But with Gibbs and Hamlin having better records at each of the next two tracks than Keselowski, and drivers like Suarez, Cindric and Bowman having such a solid cushion, Keselowski will have to not only shoot for stage points at The Glen but also step up his overall performance there over these next two weekends to advance.
Playoff Standings after Atlanta
- Joey Logano – ADVANCED (WIN)
- Ryan Blaney +45 points to the cutline
- Christopher Bell +40
- Tyler Reddick +33
- William Byron +33
- Alex Bowman +27
- Austin Cindric +27
- Chase Elliott +24
- Daniel Suarez +22
- Kyle Larson +15
- Denny Hamlin +2
- Ty Gibbs +1
- Brad Keselowski -1
- Harrison Burton -16
- Martin Truex Jr. -19
- Chase Briscoe -21
NEXT: NASCAR at Watkins Glen 2024: Odds, TV/radio times and more info
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Jonathan Fjeld View All
Jonathan Fjeld is the co-owner of the The Racing Experts, LLC. He has been with TRE since 2010.
A Twin Valley, MN, native, Fjeld became a motorsports fan at just three years old (first race was the 2002 Pennsylvania 500). He worked as a contributor and writer for TRE from 2010-18. Since then, he has stepped up and covered 24 NASCAR race weekends and taken on a larger role with TRE. He became the co-owner and managing editor in 2023 and has guided the site to massive growth in that time.
Fjeld has covered a wide array of stories and moments over the years, including Kevin Harvick's final Cup Series season, the first NASCAR national series disqualification in over 50 years, Shane van Gisbergen's stunning win in Chicago and the first Cup Series race at Road America in 66 years – as well as up-and-coming drivers' stories and stories from inside the sport, like the tech it takes for Hendrick Motorsports to remain a top-tier team.
Currently, he resides in Albuquerque, N.M., where he works for KOB 4, an NBC station. He works as a digital producer and does on-air reports. He loves spending time with friends and family, playing and listening to music, exploring new places, being outdoors, reading books and writing among other activities. You can email him at fjeldjonathan@gmail.com